The New England Patriots are out of the playoff race, but the Denver Broncos are still in the mix. Their playoff odds will increase to 34% with a win tonight but will drop to 3% with a loss. With so much on the line for Denver, let’s dive into the best Patriots-Broncos player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Sunday Night Football, including a pick for Russell Wilson. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks — and make sure to use promo code “GIFT” to save 33% at checkout!
Patriots-Broncos Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Sunday
Sunday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Patriots: +270 | Broncos: -340
Patriots +7: -110 | Broncos -7: -110
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Patriots-Broncos Player Prop Pick
Russell Wilson O/U 203.5 Passing Yards
This is do-or-die territory for Russell Wilson. The veteran quarterback has looked much better this year than last and is averaging 202.3 passing yards per game with a completion rate of 66.3%.
Tonight’s matchup with the eliminated New England Patriots is a great get-right spot after last week’s beatdown at the hands of the Detroit Lions. Denver can still sneak into the playoffs, especially after Cincinnati’s loss yesterday afternoon.
Wilson should cross the 200-passing yard mark tonight. While he has only done so in six of his 14 games this year, we’ve seen him get the job done in his last two. More importantly, Wilson may struggle to make gains with his legs — the Patriots have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this season (135) but are coughing up 236.4 passing yards per game to the position.
The odds for Wilson’s passing yards vary somewhat wildly across the market. FanDuel has the over 203.5 priced at -110, but Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 214.5 at odds of -104. Public books, like BetMGM and DraftKings, also have Wilson pegged for 214.5 passing yards. Take advantage of the outlier number while you can!
Patriots-Broncos Player Prop Pick: Russell Wilson Over 203.5 Passing Yards -110 at FanDuel
Patriots-Broncos Model Player Prop
Marvin Mims O/U 10.5 Receiving Yards
So that’s my pick — let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims on the receiving yards market because of a big odds disparity between Fanatics, PointsBet and the rest of the rest of the market. You’ll find the over 10.5 priced at -120 (55.6%) on Fanatics but the over 13.5 priced at -119 (55.4%) on Pinnacle, a sharp book. The true odds ultimately point to value on the over 10.5 as they clock in at -139 (58.2%).
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!
Patriots-Broncos Player Prop Pick: Marvin Mims Over 10.5 Receiving Yards -120 at Fanatics
Patriots-Broncos Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
So who will find the end zone in Sunday’s Patriots-Broncos game? Because neither of these offenses inspires much confidence, you’ll find every player listed for an above-even price. Even running back Javonte Williams clocks in at +110 on DraftKings.
Once Denver gets close to the goal line, it’s pretty obvious who the ball will go to in passing situations. Big-bodied wide receiver Courtland Sutton has racked up 16 targets inside the 20-yard line and seven inside the 10, good for target shares of 28.6% and 22.6%, respectively.
Tight end Adam Trautman has started to see extra some goal-to-go work, but New England has fared far worse against wideouts. The Patriots have coughed up 13 receiving scores to wide receivers versus just one to tight ends. I don’t expect that trend to change come Sunday night.
Sutton clocks in at odds of +155 to score a touchdown on FanDuel, which isn’t far off from the +159 at Pinnacle. Sutton is just +115 at DraftKings and -150 on BetMGM, so make sure you’re betting intelligently and only play a number longer than +150, or 40%.
Patriots-Broncos Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Courtland Sutton +155 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 16 now!
