Patriots-Broncos Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Sunday (Dec. 24)

Sunday Night Football Odds

Odds via bet365
Patriots: +270 | Broncos: -340
Patriots +7: -110 | Broncos -7: -110
Over 36.5: -110 | Under 36.5: -110
Time: Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET

Patriots-Broncos Player Prop Pick

Russell Wilson O/U 203.5 Passing Yards

This is do-or-die territory for Russell Wilson. The veteran quarterback has looked much better this year than last and is averaging 202.3 passing yards per game with a completion rate of 66.3%.

Tonight’s matchup with the eliminated New England Patriots is a great get-right spot after last week’s beatdown at the hands of the Detroit Lions. Denver can still sneak into the playoffs, especially after Cincinnati’s loss yesterday afternoon.

So that’s my pick — let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting rookie wide receiver Marvin Mims on the receiving yards market because of a big odds disparity between Fanatics, PointsBet and the rest of the rest of the market. You’ll find the over 10.5 priced at -120 (55.6%) on Fanatics but the over 13.5 priced at -119 (55.4%) on Pinnacle, a sharp book. The true odds ultimately point to value on the over 10.5 as they clock in at -139 (58.2%).

How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!

So who will find the end zone in Sunday’s Patriots-Broncos game? Because neither of these offenses inspires much confidence, you’ll find every player listed for an above-even price. Even running back Javonte Williams clocks in at +110 on DraftKings.

Once Denver gets close to the goal line, it’s pretty obvious who the ball will go to in passing situations. Big-bodied wide receiver Courtland Sutton has racked up 16 targets inside the 20-yard line and seven inside the 10, good for target shares of 28.6% and 22.6%, respectively.

Tight end Adam Trautman has started to see extra some goal-to-go work, but New England has fared far worse against wideouts. The Patriots have coughed up 13 receiving scores to wide receivers versus just one to tight ends. I don’t expect that trend to change come Sunday night.

Sutton clocks in at odds of +155 to score a touchdown on FanDuel, which isn’t far off from the +159 at Pinnacle. Sutton is just +115 at DraftKings and -150 on BetMGM, so make sure you’re betting intelligently and only play a number longer than +150, or 40%.