We ride into Sunday night fresh off hitting the Bills-Chargers same-game parlay! Let’s get another one tonight. The Patriots are beaten down and battered, down Rhamondre Stevenson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and their best player on defense — Jabrill Peppers. After winning five straight, the Broncos have now dropped two of three, hoping to find some of their grove back against New England. This is an ugly game played down to a snail’s pace, but we still found amazing value Sunday Night Football NFL same-game parlay picks!
Patriots-Broncos NFL Same-Game Parlay Picks | Week 16 SNF
Denver Broncos -7
There is little life left in the tank for the Patriots. There’s chatter about where Bill Belichick will coach next year, assuming it’s not in New England. This team is now down its top players on both offense and defense, on top of struggling to do anything more than run the ball — and now that takes a hit with Stevenson done. This is way more about fading the Patriots than anything else. The line caught some steam and is up to 7.5 at most books, but thanks to OddsShopper we still found it at 7.
This opened at -5.5, and I immediately gave it out on the OddsShopper Discord because I sensed some movement, but to move 2 full points through two key numbers is huge. There is a general belief that the Broncos don’t deserve to be laying this number of points against anyone, but I’m not so sure there’s a number too big to give New England. The Patriots are an awful 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 non-AFC East games. They are one of the worst teams in the NFL and they play ugly football, which makes it easier to blow them out if you can beat their run defense.
The Pats are facing the league’s worst run defense, as Denver gives up 146.9 rushing yards per game. But what’s the strategy? Give the ball to Ezekiel Elliott and hope everything works out? Russell Wilson has two deep threats and a competent run game to rely upon against New England. Roll Broncos here -7.
Courtland Sutton Under 4.5 Receptions (NFL Player Prop)
This is the highest-rated bet on OddsShopper at BetRivers for the Patriots-Broncos game. Courtland Sutton will stay under five receptions in a game that doesn’t warrant a ton of passing. Sutton is also a product of game flow maybe more than anyone else on this team. When the Broncos have been down and needing to throw, Sutton has found five-plus receptions. But in this case, a game Denver is expected to be up and controlling, Sutton should rest comfortably in the three- to four-reception range.
This won’t limit production in other areas, as we just saw Sutton clear 60 yards and a score against the Chargers despite having just three grabs. This feels exactly like that type of game — Denver establishing an early lead with the pass then relying on their closer material of running out the clock. It’s also a primetime game against a desperate opponent with a smart coach, so Denver can’t waste time gaining the lead.
Some books have this prop already down to 3.5 receptions, but OddsShopper found value at BetRivers at under 4.5 grabs.
Play Smarter. Win More.
Ezekiel Elliott Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
What other choice do the Patriots have? Even if they are down 20 points in the fourth, they have little option other than to give Elliott the ball. They should have little problem moving the ball with Elliott against such a poor run defense, but converting drives into points will be the issue. Elliott should have upwards to 20 carries in this game and needs just one or two big runs to push over this number. A lot of this play comes down to circumstance and desperation from a team that still has a valuable weapon in Elliott.
We are also at the point where people are playing or coaching for their jobs. Play calling tends to either open up or become even more conservative, depending on situation but also personnel. It makes no sense for a coach in Bill O’Brien to ask Bailey Zappe to throw the ball deep down field 30-plus times rather than give the ball to their only workhorse back — and player, for that matter. Elliott will be one of the lone bright spots in this dark night for the Patriots.
Final NFL Patriots-Broncos Same-Game Parlay Picks Today
Leg 1: Denver Broncos -7
Leg 2: Courtland Sutton Under 4.5 Receptions (NFL Player Prop)
Leg 3: Ezekiel Elliott Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
= +700 at BetRivers Sportsbook
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