The New England Patriots will head to the Meadowlands for a Thursday night matchup with the New York Jets. While the Jets are a sizeable favorite, the Patriots have been pluckier than expected this year. As always, we’re here to give you the NFL betting advice you need for each game, but if you need more, check out our guide to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Patriots-Jets player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Monday Night Football, including a model pick for Rhamondre Stevenson!
Patriots-Jets Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | TNF
Patriots-Jets Model Player Prop Pick for Rhamondre Stevenson
Everyone needs an NFL player prop betting strategy. If you just bet randomly, you may win some nights, but you won’t probably understand why — or whether those bets would’ve been profitable over the long term. If you’re tired of variance and losing, check out Portfolio EV. We’re sitting at 264-221 (4.9% ROI) on all NFL bets with an OS Rating of 2 or better.
Any good sports betting strategy should focus on building a diversified portfolio of bets that are expected to be profitable over a large sample. With a few clicks of our mass entry tool, you can do just that via Portfolio EV! Let’s spotlight something that’s trading at the top of our tools for tonight’s Patriots-Jets game.
With the Patriots listed as touchdown dogs, it’s fair to expect a pass-heavy game script. That should yield some receptions for Rhamondre Stevenson, whose receptions prop is set to 2.5.
Portfolio EV, our market-based sports betting model, reveals that while ESPN BET is taking action on the over 2.5 receptions at -130, Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same wager priced at -166.
That pricing disparity is significant. Our tools estimate a breakeven price by using the market consensus weighted for book sharpness, and the math says this bet should cost -145 or higher.
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Falcons-Eagles Player Prop Model Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions -130 at ESPN BET
Patriots-Jets Player Prop Pick for Rhamondre Stevenson
We’re sitting at a nice 14-14 (+1.9U) on all NFL bets on my Tails by OddsShopper page, including a 3-0 (+2.6U streak on the last two primetime games. I’m hoping to stay hot with this pick for one of New England’s key players.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson is off to a hot start. He racked up 120 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 before tallying another 81 against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. But despite his hot start, his rushing yardage prop is set to only 66.5, and we’re still playing the under.
A look under the hood reveals Stevenson isn’t getting any help from his offensive line. Although his yards per carry (4.4) is up year-over-year (from 4), his yards before contact per carry (1.8) is down (from 1.9). New England’s bad offensive line, which ranks 23rd in run-block win rate (70%), is the reason why.
Unlike the Bengals and Seahawks, the New York Jets invest heavily in their linebackers and defensive tackles. This year, they rank fourth in run-stop win rate (35%). Last year, they ranked third (34%). With most of the same personnel returning, including key pieces like defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and linebacker Quincy Williams, we can expect more of the same.
Stevenson made only one appearance against New York last year, but he tallied just 59 rushing yards on 19 carries. New York gave him only 1.6 yards before contact per attempt. Stevenson will have to create too many yards on his own to go over the 66.5 rushing yard mark, so let’s fade him for -110 at BetMGM.
Patriots-Jets Player Prop Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 66.5 Rushing Yards -110 at BetMGM
Patriots-Jets Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
Here we go again. In Week 1, we bet on Allen Lazard to score a touchdown in primetime at +600. He scored twice. We’re running this bet back because it’s clear he has Rodgers’ trust near the goal line.
Lazard racked up three red-zone targets in Week 1, two of which turned into touchdowns. He then racked up another target in Week 2 but didn’t score. His higher-profile teammate, Garrett Wilson, has only three red-zone targets on the year.
My only concern here is a dip in volume. Lazard played on 100% of the snaps in Week 1 before playing only 82.1% in Week 2. This corresponds to a large uptick in snaps for another boundary receiver, Mike Williams, who played on 18% of snaps in Week 1 before playing on 66.1% in Week 2.
That said, neither Williams nor Wilson has the same chemistry with Rodgers that Lazard does. While I usually don’t like betting on intangibles, Lazard’s dominant red-zone target share is a real data point we can hang out hats on.
You’ll find Lazard trading for +370 at FanDuel to find paydirt tonight. The same wager will cost you +315 at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Take advantage of pricing disparities like this one – it’s a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy.
Patriots-Jets Anytime Touchdown Bet: Allen Lazard +370 at FanDuel
