Patriots-Steelers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday (Dec. 7)

Thursday Night Football Odds

Odds via bet365
Seahawks: +350 | Cowboys: -450
Seahawks +9: -110 | Cowboys -9: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Time: Thursday, Nov. 30 at 8:15 p.m. ET

Patriots-Steelers Player Prop Pick

Pat Freiermuth Prop O/U 27.5 Receiving Yards

Tight end Pat Freiermuth made a quiet return to the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense in Week 11, catching his lone target for a seven-yard gain, but he erupted for nine catches for 120 yards (on 11 targets, no less) in Week 12. He then turned three catches into 29 yards (on five targets) in Week 13. No, the quarterback change didn’t hurt him — two of Freiermuth’s receptions and 21 of his receiving yards (on three targets) came from Mitchell Trubisky. I trust them both to keep things rolling tonight. The books do, too — Pittsburgh is a touchdown favorite.

Diontae Johnson O/U 4.5 Receptions

Now that my pick is out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It wants action on wide receiver Diontae Johnson in this spot. New England’s defense has struggled all year, especially against wideouts — the Pats have coughed up 168.8 receiving yards per game to the position. Johnson averages 4.3 receptions per game as well.

But the model doesn’t care about stats — it doesn’t have to. Instead, OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results! A look at the oddsboard reveals a pretty massive disparity in the market, which is why we’re getting action on Johnson.

Will either team score a touchdown in this game? At DraftKings, the no-touchdown scorer odds are set to only 14-1 (6.7%). While the Patriots failed to score a touchdown both last weekend and two weekends before that, the Steelers have managed at least one score each week since their early October game against the Texans. The odds are just a bit too short for me to pounce on this market.

Instead, I want action on Pittsburgh’s defense to get the ball in the end zone. Quarterback Bailey Zappe has thrown seven interceptable passes in just 156 career passing attempts, good for one every 22.3 throws. While he hasn’t fumbled the ball yet this year, he recorded exactly one fumble in each of his four appearances last year.

The Steelers aren’t a defense to play sloppily against. Pittsburgh ranks fifth in interceptions per game (1). Although they have scored just two defensive touchdowns over the last two seasons, Minkah Fitzpatrick is always a threat to house any ball he gets his hands on, and he just made his return to the lineup last week. Fitzpatrick has a defensive touchdown in all but one of his NFL seasons to date, and tonight’s matchup with Zappe is the perfect spot for him to cash in this year.