As the NFL preseason winds to a close, the excitement for meaningful football only begins to grow. Friday is the last day in 2023 before meaningful football begins, as Saturday features an exciting Week 0 slate in college. Every week, I’ll post my top picks by Tuesday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my NFL preseason Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Patriots-Titans betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL preseason bet!
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our AFC North and AFC South previews. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
Patriots-Titans Pick & Preseason Betting Prediction
Patriots-Titans Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Patriots: -135 | Titans: +115
Patriots -2.5: -110 | Titans +2.5: -110
Over 38.5: -105 | Under 38.5: -115
Patriots-Titans Pick & Prediction
The New England Patriots will take on the Tennessee Titans in a preseason finale that could get weird — and from what I’ve been hearing out of Nashville, it will. The Titans have only three quarterbacks on their roster, and one of them, rookie Will Levis, has a lower-body injury. While he warmed up with the team before Tennessee’s Week 2 game, there is no guarantee that he’ll suit up. If he doesn’t, the Titans will likely give Malik Willis the entire game, which means inefficient passing and lots of rushing. If he does play, they’ll have similarly inefficient passing on tap — Levis completed only 64.2% of his passes for 3.9 net yards per attempt and an interception in Week 1.
We locked in the under for this game in the early week column, in no small part because I expected Levis to sit and Willis to get a ton of run. That scenario seems likely: Levis sat out Tennessee’s blue-and-white scrimmage on Tuesday. He tossed a few passes on occasion but primarily worked as a clipboard warrior for Willis and starter Ryan Tannehill. If the Titans are being that cautious with him just three days prior to gameday, his status for Friday’s contest is doubtful at best. We did not see Tannehill at all last preseason and probably won’t see him again this year, leaving Willis to do most of the work.
Tennessee’s already inefficient preseason offense will take on a solid New England defense that has proven quite stingy against the run in the preseason. New England held Houston to 3 yards per carry in Week 1 and Green Bay to 4.1 yards per carry in Week 2. Although the Titans ran the ball only 34.7% of the time in Week 1 with Levis active, they ran 67.8% of the time with him out in Week 2. To their credit, they have generated plenty of yards on the ground — but they also did so against the Bears and Packers, two bottom-six defenses by yards allowed per carry last year.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots enter Week 3 after using only first-string quarterback Mac Jones and backup Bailey Zappe in Week 2, so I expect to see more from the reserves on Friday. Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham both have a case to make the roster because of the new emergency quarterback rule, but the Patriots will probably want to see more of them both. McSorley went 1-for-3 for -1 NY/A with one three-yard rush in Week 1, while Cunningham went 3-for-4 for 4.8 NY/A with 34 rushing yards and a score. The rookie has reportedly been trying to make the team as a receiver, but his five-target, zero-catch showing in Week 2 could make that doing so difficult.
The total for Friday’s game between these teams sits at 38.5, so give me the under. Although the Titans have looked terrible through the air but efficient on the ground, they’ll struggle to replicate that success against a team that prioritizes stuffing the run — the Patriots ranked fourth in yards allowed per rush last season. The Patriots didn’t get to use their reserve quarterbacks late last week because of their game’s cancellation, so Bill Belichick will likely make that a priority as he chooses between Cunningham and McSorley at QB3. I doubt the total will be trading at 38.5 later in the week — especially once we get a better sense of which players each team intends to feature.
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Patriots-Titans NFL Preseason Pick: Under 38.5 -115 at FanDuel
