The Cincinnati Bengals will host the Los Angeles Rams tonight, but this edition of Monday Night Football may not go according to plan. The question is on everyone’s minds is: is Joe Burrow playing? We don’t know for sure, but I’m here to break this game down regardless. Let’s dig into Monday’s Rams-Bengals betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 3 bet!
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Rams-Bengals Pick & Betting Prediction | Monday Night Football
Monday Night Football Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Rams: +114 | Bengals: -134
Rams +2.5: -110 | Bengals -2.5: -110
Over 43.5: -112 | Under 43.5: -108
Top NFL Week 3 & Sportsbook Promotions
Rams-Bengals Pick & Prediction
Is Joe Burrow playing in Week 3’s Monday Night Football game against the Los Angeles Rams? The market appears uncertain — the Bengals were trading as a 6.5-point home favorite on the lookahead markets, but they were down to a 2-point favorite in most spots as of Tuesday evening, and they’re currently trading at a 1.5-point favorite in most spots. The Bengals have been unexpectedly bad while the Rams have been unexpectedly good, which may explain some of the line movement, but the current line likely still assumes a chance Burrow plays. Burrow will be a true game-time decision, per NBC Sports.
If Burrow can’t go, the Bengals will turn to backup Jake Browning, who has appeared in a single NFL game and made a single pass attempt. With Burrow struggling behind this offensive line, which ranks a dreadful 30th in pass block win rate (39%), Browning is almost certain to fail. Cincinnati’s offense ranks 26th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 30th in success rate (36%) through two weeks, and it seems increasingly likely that the coaching staff had been relying upon Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase playing so far above replacement level as to counteract a bad scheme.
The Rams will be road favorites if Burrow gets ruled out, so pounce on them as dogs while you can. But even if Burrow suits up, the Rams have a solid chance of covering against a hobbled Burrow. Sean McVay’s offense ranks 10th in EPA per play and sixth in success rate (47.5%), far better than what Zac Taylor, once considered one of his proteges, has cooked up with far more talented players. Matthew Stafford may rank only 18th in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/CPOE composite score, but that’s far better than 29th-ranked Burrow at this point in the year.
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The Rams and Bengals have played roughly the same on defense, but the Rams have taken on far better opponents. L.A. clocks in 24th in EPA allowed per play and 27th in success rate allowed (47.7%). Cincinnati leads in the first metric at 22nd but trails in the second at 29th (49%). The Bengals are only 8-12-1 ATS since their ill-fated Super Bowl appearance against the Rams, which, while better than the Rams’ 7-12 record, didn’t come with their star quarterback sidelined. Regardless of whether Joe Burrow is playing, buying the Rams as up to a 1.5-point favorite is one of my favorite Week 3 NFL picks.
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Rams-Bengals Week 4 Pick: Los Angeles +2 -110 at DraftKings
