Have you been waiting all day for Sunday night? I know I have been, and I’m excited for the first Sunday Night Football game of the season. The Detroit Lions will square off with the Los Angeles Rams in yet another Matthew Stafford Revenge Game. Stafford came up one point short in the NFC Wild Card Round last year, but can he pull this one off? If you need more NFL betting advice, check out our guide to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting. Without further ado, let’s dive into our Rams-Lions player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet, including a model pick for David Montgomery!
Rams-Lions Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | SNF
Rams-Lions Player Prop Pick for David Montgomery
Have you thought about putting together your NFL player prop betting strategy this season, or are you just clicking on random bets you feel are good (or someone tells you are good)? If you haven’t, I encourage you to consider placing more bets for less money.
Instead of thinking about sports betting strategy in terms of finding “locks” — and especially in terms of putting together +10000 parlays — think like a professional sports bettor in terms of “edge” and probability. Professional gamblers are happy to win 60% of their plays.
As you think about strategy, consider the methodology behind your approach. Most of the time, bettors make projection-based bets, meaning they project a player for over or under their line. But what if I told you there were another way — market-based betting — that can help you turn a profit without projections?
To illustrate my point, consider this David Montgomery player prop at BetMGM. Just about every sportsbook has Montgomery’s rushing yardage prop set to 55.5 or higher. Those with a 54.5 have it priced for -140, generally.
But BetMGM lists the over 54.5, and they’re only charging -110 for it. While the difference in implied probability may not seem that wide, it’s meaningful enough to warrant a wager.
Our market-based sports betting model estimates that this Montgomery prop should have odds of -123, edging out the number we’re getting at BetMGM by enough for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $20 on this +EV bet.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with positive expected value (+EV) instead of a series of “can’t-miss bets” can unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
Keep reading to see how you can take our tools for a spin for 15% off!
Rams-Lions Player Prop Model Pick: David Montgomery Over 54.5 Rushing Yards -110 at BetMGM
Rams-Lions Player Prop Pick for Cooper Kupp
The emergence of Puka Nacua has caused many to forget about just how dominant his teammate, Cooper Kupp, can be. Sure, the now 31-year-old wideout’s best days are behind him, but he remains one of the most surehanded wideouts in the NFL. He now gets what, in my view, is a soft Detroit secondary.
Last year, the Lions gave up the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts (181). To fix the problem, they brought in some help in the secondary, including cornerback Carlton Davis III and first-round rookie Terrion Arnold. At safety, they’ll rely on Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph with C.J. Gardner-Johnson back in Philadelphia.
The biggest problem with this secondary is the slot. Davis is (arguably) at least a replacement-level boundary cornerback. Arnold has some serious upside but is also a boundary corner. That leaves the Lions with Amik Robertson to mop up the slot, but he recorded just a 63.4 PFF grade last season. Detroit could use more linebackers and safeties in the slot than usual.
Although the Rams use Kupp all over the formation, he took a majority of his snaps from the slot last season, and he should do so again this year. Look for him to cook the Lions for some splash plays tonight.
Rams-Lions Player Prop Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 66.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel
Rams-Lions Anytime Touchdown Bet for Sunday Night Football
Personally, I don’t see enough value on the anytime touchdown scorer markets for tonight’s Rams-Lions game for me to be getting too much action of my own on this one.
But if you’re looking to sweat out an anytime touchdown scorer bet, look no further than the man we just discussed, Cooper Kupp.
Kupp’s anytime touchdown odds clock in between +120 and +140 at most public books, which is pretty efficient (I’d make this right around +140), but it’s the best value you’ll find on the board.
Although Kupp didn’t play every game last season, he led the Rams in red-zone targets with 18. Although he only turned four of them into scores, I’m betting on some positive touchdown regression for the 31-year-old veteran.
Rams-Lions Anytime Touchdown Bet: Cooper Kupp +140 at Unibet
