Ravens-49ers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Christmas (Dec. 25)

Monday Night Football Odds

Odds via bet365
Ravens: +210 | 49ers: -260
Ravens +6: -110 | 49ers -6: -110
Over 46.5: -110 | Under 46.5: -110
Time: Monday, Dec. 25 at 8:15 p.m. ET

Ravens-49ers Player Prop Pick

Gus Edwards O/U 2.5 Receiving Yards

The Baltimore Ravens lost talented undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell for the season last week, which leaves them with a backfield of Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and, um, Melvin Gordon III. Yes, he is still in the league.

Although Edwards is more of a pure runner than a passing-game threat, the Ravens are more than willing to give him a few screen passes per game. Edwards has tallied 11 receptions for 141 yards this year.

So that’s my pick — let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting veteran wide receiver Deebo Samuel on the… rushing yards market?

Yes, that’s right, and it’s because of a meaningful odds disparity between FanDuel and the rest of the rest of the market. You’ll find the under 12.5 priced at -110 (52.4%) on FanDuel but the under 11.5 priced at -120 (55.6%) on Pinnacle, a sharp book. The true odds ultimately point to value on the under 12.5 as they clock in at -119 (55.4%).

How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!

We probably aren’t going to cash this Ravens-49ers anytime touchdown scorer pick, but if we do, it’ll be a Christmas miracle. The Baltimore Ravens let fullback Kyle Juszczyk walk in free agency a few years ago, and Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers made him the highest-paid player at the position.

Juszczyk doesn’t see a ton of opportunities, but the 49ers could get creative in the red zone against this stingy Baltimore defense, and that may open up a chance for Juszczyk to score. The veteran fullback has already racked up four targets and two rushing attempts inside the red zone this year.

Baltimore’s defense has coughed up just five total touchdowns to running backs this season along with just three receiving touchdowns to tight ends. If the Ravens can limit effectively limit Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle in the red zone, Juszczyk could see his number called close to the goal line.

The Harvard alum has already faced off against his previous team once, and he was held without a touch in a three-point loss. Look for him to finally get some looks in a revenge spot on Christmas day.