Week 4 hasn’t disappointed so far, and the NFL will look to keep providing for us with tonight’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. For what Vegas expects to be a close game, I’m here to dish out my player prop picks for Sunday night’s matchup. Make sure to check out our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting while you’re here! Without further ado, let’s dive into our Bills-Ravens player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Sunday Night Football, including a player prop pick for Isaiah Likely.
Ravens-Bills Player Prop Pick for Justice Hill
The NFL season has been good to us so far. We’re sitting at 29-25 (+8.9U) on all of our NFL bets this season via The Profit Isaiah, including the picks posted via this column, and I’m hoping to stay hot. We’re running back one of the bets we cashed earlier this season by targeting running back Justice Hill as a receiver.
Although the books have gotten a bit smarter about Hill’s usage since the Week 1 game against the Kansas City Chiefs, his receiving yardage prop of 14.5 at Hard Rock is still too low, especially for what’s expected to be a close game versus Buffalo.
The Bills defense does a lot well, but that often creates opportunities for running backs in the passing game via dump-off passes. Buffalo currently ranks third-worst in receiving yards allowed to running backs per game (54).
A quick look at recent box scores reveals this trend. Travis Etienne Jr. caught four passes for 17 yards last week. De’Von Achane caught seven for 69. He’s kind of a cheat code since he lines up wide often, but even Jeffrey Wilson Jr. caught two for 12. James Conner caught three for 33 in Week 1.
Hill is averaging 3.3 receptions for 27.3 receiving yards per game. While it’s fair to treat his six-catch, 52-yard showing against the Chiefs as a bit of an outlier, this line is still priced at too much of a discount to pass up. Lock in the over 14.5 for -110 at Hard Rock.
Ravens-Bills Player Prop Pick: Justice Hill Over 14.5 Receiving Yards -110 at Hard Rock
Ravens-Bills Anytime Touchdown Bet for Sunday Night Football
The Baltimore Ravens will try to get Derrick Henry across the goal line when they’re in the red zone, but if that doesn’t work, Lamar Jackson has a plethora of weapons with which to work near paydirt.
However, none of those weapons stand out more than tight end Isaiah Likely, especially with middle linebacker Terrell Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson both out.
Likely actually works out of the slot on 38.2% of his snaps, so Johnson’s absence is more meaningful than you may think at first blush. With Johnson out last week, the Bills gave up plenty of yards to Jacksonville’s slot wideout, Christian Kirk. Jacksonville’s only touchdown went to a tight end, too.
Likely’s odds of finding the end zone clock in all the way up at +360 on FanDuel. The same bet will cost you a bit more (+331) at Pinnacle, a sharp book. Using pricing disparities like this one makes for a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy, so don’t leave this one off your card.
Ravens-Bills Anytime Touchdown Bet: Isaiah Likely +360 at FanDuel
