After a thrilling Sunday of NFL action, we’re spoiled with a two-game Monday Night Football doubleheader this week. Before you leave, I recommend checking out our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting to refine your process, but now, let’s dive into our Ravens-Buccaneers player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Monday Night Football, including a player prop pick for Lamar Jackson. Click here for more NFL expert picks!
Ravens-Buccaneers Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday
Ravens-Buccaneers Player Prop Pick for Lamar Jackson
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season. Tampa Bay has allowed 31.7 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, which ranks sixth-most in the NFL. Bo Nix ran for 47 against them in Week 3. Jayden Daniels exploded for 88 in Week 1.
One explanation for Tampa’s struggles stems from their defensive scheme. The Buccaneers rank as the eighth most aggressive team by blitz rate this season (29.5%), which has often led opposing quarterbacks to scramble. Few can do this better than the one they’ll face this week, Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is averaging an impressive 67.2 rushing yards per game this season, and while that’s up substantially from what we saw from him last year (51.3), it’s more in line with his production from 2022 (63.7), 2021 (63.9) and his first MVP season in 2019 (80.4). If anything, 2023 was the outlier.
The books haven’t adjusted Jackson’s rushing prop projections too much this season. He is trading for between 49.5 to 52.5 rushing yards at most major sportsbooks. That number feels too low for a game like this one that should feature plenty of scrambling, so lock in the over 49.5 for -120 at ESPN BET.
Ravens-Buccaneers Player Prop Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 49.5 Rushing Yards -120 at ESPN BET
For more profitable sports betting picks, check out Portfolio EV — we’re up to 730-633 (4.9% ROI) on all NFL player prop bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher this season. Read our guide to NFL player prop betting strategy for more information!
Ravens-Buccaneers Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
Is Mark Andrews back? After being virtually invisible to start the season, Andrews caught his first touchdown of the season last week while posting a season-high in receiving yards (66). He posted season-highs in targets (5) and receptions (4) the week before as well.
Running back Derrick Henry is obviously the main threat to score in this offense, but at odds of -185, we need to look elsewhere for value. Andrews has only two red-zone targets to his name this year, which trails Isaiah Likely (6) and Justice Hill (5), but he has one in the last two weeks — and he led this team in red-zone targets last year (14).
This blitz-heavy Buccaneers defense has underperformed versus tight ends. While they haven’t allowed a score to the position, they have allowed the 58.7 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which ranks sixth worst. These factors all point to value in Baltimore’s tight end room.
While the team’s low-volume passing game makes it easy for Andrews to fade into the background, his touchdown odds are too long. Andrews’ anytime touchdown scorer odds are just +360 at FanDuel while they’re +230 at DraftKings and +308 at Pinnacle, and Even the slightest misprice can be a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy.
Ravens-Buccaneers Anytime Touchdown Bet: Mark Andrews +360 at FanDuel
