The NFL is back — Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs will square off in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game on Thursday Night Football. The last meeting of these teams saw 24 points scored, which the books don’t expect to recur — the total for the encore is trading at 46.5. If you’re looking for the best Ravens-Chiefs player props and anytime touchdown scorer bets, you’ve come to the right place — let’s dive right into the action, including a model pick for Patrick Mahomes!
Ravens-Chiefs Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | TNF
Ravens-Chiefs Player Prop Pick for Patrick Mahomes
When thinking about the NFL player prop betting strategy you’re going to use this year, if that’s something you’ve thought about at all, I encourage you to consider placing more bets for less money.
Instead of thinking about sports betting strategy in terms of finding “locks” or guaranteed winners, think like a professional sports bettor in terms of “edge” and probability.
One NFL player prop betting strategy to at least consider is to take a market-based approach. Instead of relying on your projections or gut feelings, consider using the market to, well, beat the market.
To illustrate my point, consider this Patrick Mahomes player prop at Fanatics. Almost every sportsbook has Mahomes’ rushing yardage prop set to 20.5, and they’re charging between -110 or -125 for the under.
Fanatics lists the same prop total at 25.5, and they’re only charging -140 for the under. While the difference in implied probability may not seem (and, frankly, isn’t) that wide, it’s meaningful enough to warrant a wager.
Our market-based sports betting model estimates that this Mahomes prop should have odds of -149, edging out the number we’re getting at Fanatics by enough for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $14 on this +EV bet.
Viewing your sports bets as a portfolio of investments with positive expected value (+EV) instead of a series of “can’t-miss bets” can unlock a higher return on investment, one that compounding returns can bring to the moon.
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Ravens-Chiefs Player Prop Model Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 Rushing Yards -140 at Fanatics
Ravens-Chiefs Player Prop Pick for Justice Hill
In addition to placing some market-based bets, I use a projections-based approach to find additional bets that I believe have +EV. One NFL player prop pick for running back Justice Hill stands out for that reason. His receiving yardage prop is set to 8.5 or 9.5, depending on the book you choose, and I believe there to be value on the over.
Hill is entering his fifth season in Baltimore and faces competition from pretty much just Derrick Henry at this point. Last year, he averaged 12.8 receiving yards per game despite competing with Gus Edwards (in L.A.), Keaton Mitchell (on IR) and J.K. Dobbins (in L.A.). He caught four passes for 34 yards in the AFC Championship Game.
The Ravens are 3-point dogs for Thursday, so it’s reasonable to expect them to be throwing the ball often, especially late. While the Ravens are obviously high on Henry, head coach John Harbaugh has called him a “high-value running back” who could start somewhere else in the NFL. Don’t expect Henry to be on the field for every play.
We only need two decent dump-offs or one effective screen for Hill to go over the 8.5. With Pinnacle charging -133 for the over, we’re getting a market-based edge on the over 8.5 for -112 at Unibet and -120 at Hard Rock.
Ravens-Chiefs Player Prop Pick: Justice Hill Over 8.5 Receiving Yards -112 at Unibet
Ravens-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
Although I’m more bullish on Justice Hill than most, my favorite anytime touchdown scorer bet for Ravens-Chiefs is just Derrick Henry. The Ravens brought him in for a reason. In addition to being an early-down power back, Henry fills the goal-line role that Edwards vacated quite nicely.
Edwards racked up 39 red-zone rushing attempts last season, the most of anyone in Baltimore. A whopping 30 of those came inside the 10 (seventh-most among all running backs). Of those 30, 19 came inside the five-yard line, tying Edwards for first with Raheem Mostert. Edwards scored on 12 of those 19 touches, so imagine what Henry can do.
The biggest question for this bet is value. The best number for Henry on the anytime touchdown markets is a -110 at Fliff. The -115 at ESPNBET isn’t far behind, but it’s a tick worse than the -114 at Pinnacle. We need Henry to score more than half the time to cash this prop, but I’d personally make this line closer to -150 (60%).
Ravens-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Bet: Derrick Henry -115 at ESPNBET
