Week 5 brought us a ton of wacky results, including a multitude of defensive scores. Will we see more wonkiness on Monday, or will things go back to normal? While you’re here, make sure to check out our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting to improve your process. Now, let’s dive into our Saints-Chiefs player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Monday Night Football, including a player prop pick for Travis Kelce.
Saints-Chiefs Player Prop Pick for Alvin Kamara
The New Orleans Saints won’t have a number of key pieces in the interior of their offensive line. Week 1 staring center Eric McCoy is on injured reserve. His replacement, Shane Lemieux, is out. So is right tackle Cesar Ruiz. Derek Carr will have a hard time staying upright and going through his progressions.
The volume of injuries in the interior of this offensive line will derail the running game, especially with Chris Jones in the middle of things. He is a great bet to record a sack — but not enough books that explicitly grade a half-sack as a sack have opened the bidding.
So, if the Saints want to get Alvin Kamara involved on Monday night, it’ll probably have to be as a receiver. Kamara has a route participation of 56.4% this season, which ranks fourth among running backs, and with the Saints trading as 5.5-point dogs, plenty of passing plays are expected.
Despite the injuries in the middle of this line, Kamara’s receiving yardage prop is only 31.5 at BetMGM, and you can buy the over for -110. Kamara’s health is a bit of a concern, as he is dealing with both rib and hip issues, but the Saints will need him to step up in this spot. Ladder him to 50-plus receiving yards for +240 at DraftKings.
Saints-Chiefs Player Prop Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards -110 at BetMGM
Saints-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Bet for Monday Night Football
Sometimes people overthink things. That appears to be the case with Travis Kelce this Monday night. Kelce’s anytime touchdown scorer odds clock in a shocking +145 at FanDuel (it’s only +137 at Pinnacle). While Kelce had fallen behind wide receiver Rashee Rice as the top option for Patrick Mahomes in the red zone, he won’t have that issue this week.
Mahomes has spread the ball around in the red zone this season, with only Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Noah Gray tallying multiple red-zone looks. Kelce just hasn’t managed to snag either of his red-zone targets, and, as a result, has yet to find the end zone this season. That should change tonight.
The Saints have given up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to tight ends (54.3) but have yet to surrender a receiving touchdown to the position. The lack of scores for tight ends feels more like noise than signal with the volume of yards they have generated, and Kelce is a good bet at the market price to score.
Using pricing disparities like this one makes for a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy. It may feel square to bet on such a public player like Kelce, but with so many of Mahomes’ weapons injured, don’t leave this one off your card. Smith-Schuster at +500 is a decent wager as well.
Saints-Chiefs Anytime Touchdown Bet: Travis Kelce +145 at FanDuel
