The New Orleans Saints will visit the Los Angeles Rams in a crucial Thursday Night Football game in the NFC Wild Card race. The Rams are currently the seventh seed and have a 54% chance of making the playoffs, while the Saints are the ninth seed but own a 43% chance, which likely stems from their 32% chance of winning the NFC South. Let’s dive into the best Saints-Rams player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday Night Football, including an Alvin Kamara pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Saints-Rams Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Saints: +175| Rams: -210
Saints +4: -110 | Rams -4: -110
Over 46: -110 | Under 46: -110
Time: Thursday, Dec. 21 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Saints-Rams Player Prop Pick
Alvin Kamara Prop O/U 86.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
Sometimes market-based picks are flat-out sharp. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Alvin Kamara at odds of -113 to stay under 29.5 receiving yards and at odds of -113 to stay under 52.5 rushing yards — good for 82 combined yards.
Kamara sits at -114 to stay under 86.5 rushing and receiving yards, which signals FanDuel hasn’t adjusted that market for movement in the other two. All other books have Kamara’s line at least one yard shorter — and all list the under at a steeper price.
There are some additional reasons to fade Kamara on Thursday Night Football. For one, the Los Angeles Rams surrender the fewest receiving yards to running backs per game (20.3) to go with the 13th-fewest rushing yards (82.9). For another, Kamara has begun to see his unsustainably large role scaled back. He played on just 48.5% of New Orleans’ snaps last week, way down from his season average (65%). With Jamaal Williams fully healthy, the Saints can afford to rotate out their star veteran more. Wide receiver Chris Olave will also make his return to the offense, further reducing the need for Kamara to make like Greg Jennings and put the team on his back.
Saints-Rams Player Prop Pick: Alvin Kamara Under 86.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Saints-Rams Model Player Prop
Kyren Williams O/U 19.5 Rushing Attempts
That’s my pick, so let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model likes. It recommends buying Kyren Williams on the rushing attempt markets because of an odds disparity. You’ll find him listed at odds of +100 to go over the 19.5 at ESPNBet with just about every other book stacking the juice in the opposite direction. FanDuel lists the same bet at -130. DraftKings lists the over 18.5 at -140. Both PointsBet and bet365 even have the total set to 20.5 with the over at a stiffer price.
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at Greg Ehrenberg’s betting results!
The model wants action on Williams because the true odds of this wager sit at -118, which means we’re getting enough positive expected value on the +100 for a bettor with a bankroll of $1,000 to wager $23. If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “GIFT” to take 33% off!
Saints-Rams Player Prop Pick: Kyren Williams Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts +100 at ESPNBet
Saints-Rams Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
The New Orleans Saints have given up 16 receiving touchdowns this season — eight to wide receivers, one to running backs and seven to tight ends. T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta, Cole Kmet, Cade Otton, Dalton Schultz and Andrew Ogletree have all found paydirt against them this year.
Tyler Higbee has a better shot of scoring this week than the market reflects.
Higbee may not see a ton of red-zone volume so far this season — his five targets inside the 20-yard line means he ranks just fifth in the Los Angeles offense, after all — but two of those looks came in the last three weeks, and both went for scores.
Caesars has Higbee at odds of +360 to score a touchdown on Thursday night. For context, Cooper Kupp clocks in at +100 and Puka Nacua at +110. Kyren Williams is down at -225. The team’s third wide receiver, Demarcus Robinson, even owns shorter odds than Higbee at +275.
I’m not saying it’s a guarantee that Higbee will score this week — the Saints haven’t allowed a touchdown of any kind, let alone a receiving touchdown to a tight end, over the last two weeks. Still, it’s likelier than the 21.7% chance the odds at Caesars imply, which is why every other public sportsbook has a worse price.
Saints-Rams Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Tyler Higbee +360
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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