The Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys are coming off Thanksgiving games that went quite differently. Dallas took care of business at home, while Seattle got blown out at home. The good news for both sides is that they’re not operating on short weeks. Let’s dive into the best Seahawks-Cowboys player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Thursday Night Football, including a Tony Pollard pick. Check out OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Seahawks-Cowboys Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Thursday
Thursday Night Football Odds
Odds via bet365
Seahawks: +350 | Cowboys: -450
Seahawks +9: -110 | Cowboys -9: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Time: Thursday, Nov. 30 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Seahawks-Cowboys Player Prop Pick
Tony Pollard Prop O/U 19.5 Receiving Yards
Given their recent struggles, it may come as a surprise to you to hear that the Seattle Seahawks actually have a good pass rush. Seattle ranks ninth in pressure percentage (24.6%) and 11th in pass-rush win rate (45%). This has often forced check-downs to running backs from opposing offenses — the Seahawks have allowed 461 receiving yards to the position, good for 41.9 per game. Christian McCaffrey got 25 receiving yards on five receptions last week and 26 on four to Darrell Henderson Jr. a week before. Brian Robinson went for 119 on six before that.
Tony Pollard should play a sizeable role in the passing game early against the Seahawks. The Cowboys are correctly favored by over touchdown for this one, but we’ve seen plenty of receiving production from Pollard in similar blowouts. He caught seven passes for 37 yards against the New York Jets in a 20-point win, six for 24 against the Washington Commanders in a 35-point win and four for 19 against the Carolina Panthers in a 23-point win. Look for Dak Prescott to turn to Pollard a few times on screens or dump-off passes in the first three quarters — and look for Pollard to generate some big plays on those opportunities.
Seahawks-Cowboys Player Prop Pick: Tony Pollard Over 19.5 Receiving Yards -114 at FanDuel
Seahawks-Cowboys Model Player Prop
Tyler Lockett O/U 48.5 Receiving Yards
With my pick out of the way, let’s see what OddsShopper’s model has to say about this game. It wants action on veteran receiver Tyler Lockett in this spot. Big-bodied boundary receiver DK Metcalf should draw plenty of attention from Dallas’ defense, which should create some openings for Lockett over the middle of the field. Lockett is averaging 52.3 receiving yards per game this year and 59.7 since their Week 5 bye.
But the model doesn’t care about stats — it doesn’t have to. Instead, OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. And yes, it’s profitable — just look at some results! A look at the oddsboard reveals a pretty massive disparity in the market, which is why we’re getting action on Lockett.
The movel loves Lockett in this spot because Pinnacle, a sharp book, has his receiving yardage prop set to 48.5 with the over priced at -131, but you can find the same bet for just -101 on Caesars! The true odds, again, the hold-adjusted fair-market price, sit at only -108. Should you not already have a Caesars Sportsbook account, Make sure to check out our Caesars promo code to get your first bet on the house for up to $1,000! If you haven’t signed up for OddsShopper Premium, you can get access to all of our NFL betting tools for $49.95 per month. Make sure to use promo code “ISIROIS” to take 20% off.
Seahawks-Cowboys Player Prop: Tyler Lockett Over 48.5 Receiving -101 at Caesars
Seahawks-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
Pop quiz: do you know the top six receivers by total targets inside the 20-yard line? Some of the usual suspects are up there, like Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb. Michael Pittman Jr. is up there, too. Rounding out the top six is none other than tight end Jake Ferguson, who you can buy for odds of +200 to find paydirt on Thursday night. Ferguson is there largely because of Dallas’ efficient offense, which gets to the red zone an absolute ton.
We’re locking in Ferguson to score a touchdown on Thursday because of his high-volume role in the red zone and his relatively long odds. With this wager priced at just +200 on BetMGM, the implied probability of him scoring is just 33.3%. He clocks in at +175 or shorter to find paydirt at most public books, including DraftKings and FanDuel.
The Seahawks have only allowed 14 passing touchdowns this year, and only one has gone to a tight end, which went to David Njoku on an 18-yard score, but I think much of that is noise. They have allowed 57 total receptions (13th-most) and 570 total receiving yards (13th-most) to the position this year. Ferguson’s red-zone volume is just too to pass up.
Seahawks-Cowboys Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Jake Ferguson +200 at BetMGM
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