The NBA has typically been on center stage in both playing and leading the sports world in honoring Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. While the NFL was set to swoop in on prime time later tonight in Tampa, inclement weather moved this Steelers-Bills game to an afternoon matinee. The start of Super Wild Card Weekend is already a success, and not just because the Cowboys took a massive L. It’s been underdogs and high-scoring affairs, so here are our best same-game parlay picks for Steelers-Bills in today’s brutal conditions, including a player prop pick for Najee Harris. Need more action? Check out our parlay builder and our guide to parlay betting.
Steelers-Bills Same-Game Parlay Picks
Leg 1. Bills ML/Under 41.5 (NFL Betting Pick)
This is a two-for-one, but it can also work as a separate same-game parlay. We are combining two ridiculous trends with the insane weather conditions in Buffalo. It’s expected to be 18 degrees and snowy during the game, not including whatever wind chill. Despite their experience in cold-weather environments, the conditions won’t benefit the Steelers in any way. Their game plan shouldn’t change either because they would be running the ball in South Beach or the South Pole. The 41 is a key number with totals, and we get the hook in a game that won’t see many touchdowns.
The two biggest trends here favor Josh Allen keeping a clean slate and the Steelers’ inability to navigate without T.J. Watt. Allen has yet to lose a start when he does not turn over the football. That’s pretty impressive since he is known for being a self-destructive machine that makes some truly questionable decisions. It’s just a matter of playing extra smart and recognizing that the conditions should favor the home team in this spot.
Watt’s absence from the Steelers is impossible to ignore. They’ve won one of eleven games without their top pass rusher. The conditions may impact the Bills’ passing game, but only if there’s wind. A big misconception about snow is that teams can’t or won’t throw. Wind often accompanies snowy days, and winds in Orchard Park should be around 15 mph. That could affect both teams’ kicking and passing units.
Leg 2. Jaylen Warren 3+ Receptions (NFL Player Prop)
Najee Harris will get plenty of carries but Mason Rudolph and the Steelers prefer to throw to Jaylen Warren. The conditions may impact the Steelers’ decision to throw deep, but they still need to throw to keep the Bills from stacking the box. Rudolph is going to hit Warren at least three times, as he has done in five straight games.
The wind could easily gust up to 20 to 25 mph, and while Allen has the better arm and weapons to throw open, Rudolph’s best friend will be screen passes. Matt Canada is gone, so it’s now safe to assume whoever is game-planning for the Steelers is at least competent.
Pittsburgh needs to establish an early lead but also give their defense a break. Without Watt, they become extra vulnerable to any quick, medium, or deep balls from Allen.
Warren is also making the most of his grabs. During this hot stretch, he has just one game with a long reception of less than 10 yards. It may not be sexy, but dumping off to Warren is working.
Leg 3. Najee Harris 60+ Rushing Yards (NFL Player Prop)
Did you hear about the weather in Buffalo?
If you are noticing a theme here it’s because the one constant going into this game is the cold. Josh Allen may turn into a pumpkin and Mason Rudolph into Tom Brady. Najee Harris may fumble every carry, and George Pickens may score four times. All of those are possible. We are as close to impossible as it gets for this to be anything other than a cold and miserable football game. That certainly helps the lead rushing back for Pittsburgh in Harris.
Another thing that helps him is how average the Bills are against the run. Just because it’s cold and snowy doesn’t mean teams can’t run the ball. Anyone with the football has a significant advantage on any cuts, be it running routes or breaking someone while carrying the ball. The Bills are struggling at times against bigger backs. Harris should get a significant share of the volume to get to this number.
One more thing to take into account with the weather: the Steelers can’t just switch up to an aerial assault. While they do have some guys to throw to, the combination of trust in Rudolph in a playoff game and the weather should limit those decisions. Timing is everything, we’re just playing the volume here.
Final Steelers-Bills Same-Game Parlay Bet Today
Leg 1: Buffalo ML / U 41.5 ALT
Leg 2: Jaylen Warren 3+ Receptions
Leg 3: Najee Harris 60+ Rushing Yards
= +475 odds at BetMGM
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