It’s one of the greatest rivalries in sports — but the stakes are far lower than usual this Saturday. The Baltimore Ravens will host the Pittsburgh Steelers after clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed last week against the Miami Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Steelers can get into the playoffs with a win and a few possibilities outside of their control. With so much on the line for one side — and so little on the line for the other — let’s dive into the best Steelers-Ravens player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Saturday, including a pick for Mason Rudolph. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Steelers-Ravens Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Saturday
Steelers-Ravens Odds for Saturday
Odds via bet365
Steelers: -180 | Ravens: +150
Steelers -3: -120 | Ravens +3: +100
Over 35: -110 | Under 35: -110
Time: Saturday, Jan. 6 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Steelers-Ravens Player Prop Pick
Mason Rudolph O/U 195.5 Passing Yards
I’m getting a little bit weird with my Steelers-Ravens player prop pick. While quarterback Mason Rudolph may get a bunch of chances against Baltimore’s backups, let’s not forget this isn’t the preseason — the Ravens can’t rest everybody.
Further, Rudolph will have to play in some aggressively terrible weather conditions, and even a few mistakes could lead head coach Mike Tomlin to put Kenny Pickett into the game. Pickett is expected to be active as the QB2.
The weather deserves more than a quick consideration. The forecast calls for a wintry mix beginning at 9 a.m. that will transition into a standard rain shower at 12 p.m. This rain will continue until nightfall. Saturday’s action is scheduled to get underway at 4:25 p.m. ET, at which there is a 100% chance of precipitation with winds of about 15 mph. The chance of precipitation will remain high at 85% or higher until 7 p.m. ET.
Soggy, sloppy and windy conditions limit passing offenses and create plenty of chances for players — including Rudolph — to make mistakes. Turnovers often lead to benching, especially when the real starter at a given position is active. You’ll find Rudolph’s passing yardage total set to 195.5 at FanDuel but only 188.5 at most major books, including Pinnacle. Buy the under and hope that Rudolph gets benched in Week 18.
Steelers-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Mason Rudolph Under 195.5 Passing Yards -113 at FanDuel
Steelers-Ravens Model Player Prop
Allen Robinson II O/U 15.5 Receiving Yards
Now that you’ve read up on my pick, let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting Allen Robinson II on the receiving yards market because of a big odds disparity between Fanatics and the rest of the rest of the market.
You’ll find the under 15.5 priced at -125 (55.6%) on Fanatics. However, every other book has this one set to 13.5. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the under 13.5 at -145 (59.2%). Using all that data, our model estimates the true odds — or a breakeven price — for the under 15.5 to be -144 (59%).
How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. You can even take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
Steelers-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Allen Robinson Under 15.5 Receiving Yards -125 at Fanatics
Steelers-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
I’m going to cheat here. Instead of picking an anytime touchdown scorer, what if we picked no touchdowns to be scored in the game at all? It’s possible, especially given the weather, and DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the wager at odds of +2500 (3.8%). Those odds reflect the game’s total, which sits at just 34.5, but I think there is value here regardless.
Pittsburgh’s offense ranks a dreadful 27th in both team touchdowns per game (1.8) and red-zone trips per game (2.5). Baltimore’s offense has fared well in the metric, but with Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Odell Beckham Jr. all out — and Zay Flowers doubtful — the Ravens may struggle to move the football, especially in such awful conditions.
Both the Ravens and Steelers play at a below-average pace while running at an above-average clip, which should keep the clock moving. These teams combined for just two touchdowns and 27 in their most recent meeting despite Jackson starting. It’s unlikely, but given the weather, the odds of zero touchdowns being scored in this game are higher than 3.8%. I wagered one-third of a unit on this one.
Steelers-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: No Touchdown +2500 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 18 now!
