The Pittsburgh Steelers head south for a matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend, and their defense will get a chance to tee off against a rookie quarterback. I think you can predict where this is heading, but let’s dive into the Steelers-Texans player prop markets to pick the best bet for Week 4, which is a bet on C.J. Stroud.
Steelers-Texans Player Prop Bet for Week 4
Steelers-Texans Information
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: CBS
When: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
Who: C.J. Stroud at DraftKings
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Steelers-Texans Player Prop Pick
The Houston Texans will host the scary Pittsburgh Steelers defense this weekend. The imposing Steel Curtain is a tough matchup for any quarterback, let alone a rookie. The Steelers have allowed 259.7 passing yards per game this year, but the bulk of that damage came in garbage time during Week 3 — after being kept in check for most of the game, Jimmy Garoppolo ended up with 324 total passing yards. I don’t expect to see a similar performance from C.J. Stroud — neither Deshaun Watson nor Brock Purdy surpassed this total against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh’s defense is a solid unit in terms of meaningful production allowed to quarterbacks. The Steelers rank eighth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback and 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt. With a defensive front that features pass rusher T.J. Watt and a secondary that boasts Minkah Fitzpatrick, Stroud doesn’t have an easy task ahead. It’ll be an adjustment for him, too: his last two games came against bottom-10 units in yards allowed per pass attempt, which explains his bloated average of 302 passing yards per game.
Stroud’s passing production just has to slow down. No other rookie quarterback this year is even averaging 200 yards per game. Since 2010, only seven rookie quarterbacks to take over the full-time starting job have averaged more than 250 passing yards per game — Cam Newton (253.2), Andrew Luck (273.4), Jameis Winston (252.6), Baker Mayfield (266.1), Justin Herbert (289.1) and Joe Burrow (268.8) — and all averaged far less than what we’re seeing from Stroud now. Sell high on the rookie signal-caller against a tough defense.
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Best Steelers-Texans Player Prop: C.J. Stroud Under 242.5 Passing Yards -115 at DraftKings
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