The conversations following each Kansas City Chiefs game don’t typically represent an 11-1 football team. Maybe it’s fatigue, maybe it’s the way Patrick Mahomes and company seem to narrowly escape. Already with a postseason clinch, the Chiefs will look to hold off an in-division threat as they host the Los Angeles Chargers. At 8-4, Los Angeles warrants a tighter spread despite losing at home to Kansas City at the end of September. We split our TNF plays but are back to sweep the board with our +EV NFL bets and Chargers-Chiefs Sunday Night Football player prop picks!
Sunday Night Football Player Prop Picks: Expert Chargers-Chiefs Prop Bets
Expert Chargers-Chiefs Prop Bet: Travis Kelce Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
So much of why Portfolio EV works across every sport is because the strategy applies everywhere. It doesn’t matter if we are sniping this Travis Kelce receiving prop, a LeBron James points prop, or some random tennis play with a name you probably haven’t heard — find the best price and beat the market. That’s the reality here with Kelce, except we just found 4-plus extra yards. That’s the two scoops of goodness beating every other book.
Betting over 50.5 receiving yards for Kelce at Fanatics beats FanDuel’s offer of 54.5 yards. There’s a total at 55.5, a couple more at 56.5, and the rest sit at 57.5 yards. Just look at this without even doing any other analysis of the player and matchup; something’s off. One book is not like the others. Fanatics has a bad number — either slow to move or simply off. Maybe it’s on purpose — it doesn’t matter because we have the best chance of beating any book here.
Kelce is a symbol of what needs to improve with the Kansas City Chiefs offense. He’s there, just not his typical dominating force on the field. He’s barely even targeted when it comes to Kelce’s own standard. It’s hard to imagine Mahomes will not prefer to involve Kelce, but it just hasn’t clicked.
We’ve essentially hit a buy-low spot for Kelce because Noah Gray and others have become more consistent, at least in some areas. Kelce getting us 51 yards wins at Fanatics while losing everywhere else is about as clear as it gets illustrating the value.
Kelce should have one of those games as the Chiefs gear up for the playoffs. This is a familiar foe in prime time, and Kelce should take advantage.
Expert Chargers-Chiefs Prop Bet: Isiah Pacheco Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Speaking of getting that Chiefs offense back up and running, it’s the continued return of Isiah Pacheco to his old form. Kansas City hasn’t looked as crisp on the ground without him, but he should stand to continue to see increased action towards the playoffs.
He just fell short of this number last game, but it was how he got there that’s more important. Finishing with just seven carries, Pacheco flipped that into 44 yards — with a big one over 30. He’s still packing massive strength on contact but has the ability to break one for half or more of the above total.
The Chargers are 12th in the NFL in opponent rushing attempts, even worse over the last three games. Teams are running a bunch against Los Angeles when holding a late lead or able to get something on the ground. Seeing how the team has won three of its last four, it’s more a matter of exploiting a weakness.
It’s always a little funny typing this as a lifelong Philadelphia Eagles fan, but Andy Reid is going to take full advantage of this matchup on the ground. Pacheco should be at the forefront of that, netting more than the seven carries he had last game. That increase in volume alone should put him over this total.
We leaned on OddsShopper’s live odds page to find the best number for Pacheco. There’s a slight difference even in the over/under market, and we’re taking 48-plus rushing at FanDuel. Much like above, we see a slight break to other books with both SugarHouse and Caesars offering over 49.5 rushing yards. Beat the market, beat the books, pocket some cash.
