The NFL has never been closer to fully removing the kickoff than this year. We’ve seen a historic number of touchbacks on kickoffs, be it the opener or any other following a score. Even with the touchback becoming synonymous with a kickoff, books are fielding bets on whether the Super Bowl’s first kick will result in a touchback. As you can imagine, the odds are heavily stacked against anyone running the ball out of the end zone, or even the first kick falling short. It may take an onside kick for this one to hit.
Before we get going with our best Kickoff Touchback bet, make sure to check out OddsShopper Premium ahead of the big game, as our industry-leading tools can give you an edge heading into this monster event.
Super Bowl 58 Kickoff Touchback Pick, Odds & Legal States
States Where You Can Legally Bet on the Kickoff Touchback
Because kickoff markets have to do with the actual on-field sporting action at the Super Bowl — and because it’s a positive event — state-by-state rules are less relevant for these markets than others. It’ll be more important to know if your book offers them than if your state allows it.
To see which other Super Bowl 58 novelty bets are legal in your state, click here!
Super Bowl 58 Kickoff Touchback Odds
| Side | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -320 |
| No | +265 |
The NFL norm is for every kicker to boot the ball into the back of the end zone. There’s a more likely of a chance the ball going out of the end zone than falling short of it. Getting anyone to return the kick would require a couple of things, most notably a missed kick. Betting on error is never advised and isn’t truly reflected in the odds.
Speaking of which, this year’s odds have more than doubled from last year’s Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles. Harrison Butker kicked the opener out of the end zone, hitting the yes prop at -150 (opener) odds.
Between Butker and San Francisco’s Jake Moody, it’s unlikely either will make a mistake with the opener. There’s not much value in risking a return either — both Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan know that. Risking a big play to open the game on special teams could instantly boost momentum for the other side. There’s a strong chance both kickers will be told to simply boot it.
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Super Bowl 58 Kickoff Touchback History
The change in approach to kickoffs drastically impacted touchback results. We’ve seen significant drops over the past two years alone, as the Packers led the NFL this year with 31 kickoffs returned over 17 games. That in itself is a massive drop from the previous year of a league-leading 47 kickoff returns. This year saw another significant increase in teams either kneeling or never getting the chance to in their own end zones, a trend that should continue through the Super Bowl.
The NFL is simply doing everything in its power to eliminate the kickoff return without removing the kickoff. It limits injuries on special teams while getting to the bigger action quicker. In the case of the Super Bowl, it might simply be another chance to jam in three minutes of commercials.
Super Bowl 58 Kickoff Touchback Pick
The odds for this play are slightly more ridiculous than the bet itself. Laying anything over -320 seems too steep for either one of these guys kicking it short. On the counter, only getting +265 for a no side seems like robbery. The implied probability just south of 28% seems incredibly too high for something that is just rarely seen. The Super Bowl is not the time to take chances, not in the opening play of the game.
Special teams players don’t get the benefit of volume to make up for any mistakes, especially in the first play of the game. Both coaches take too much of a risk by trying something other than booting the ball for a touchback, and both kickers are available to handle the task. If pressed, the best thing to do is play yes in a parlay piece.
Super Bowl 58 Kickoff Touchback Pick: Yes (-320 on Bet365)
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