Texans-Colts Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Saturday (January 6)

Texans-Colts Odds for Saturday

Odds via bet365
Texans: -120 | Colts: +100
Texans -1: -100 | Colts +1: -110
Over 47.5: -110 | Under 47.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Jan. 6 at 8:15 p.m. ET

Texans-Colts Player Prop Pick

Dalton Schultz O/U 40.5 Receiving Yards

The Texans have a ton on the line this weekend, as does tight end Dalton Schultz. If he reels in five catches, he’ll make an extra $250,000 in contract incentives. You’ll find his odds of catching five passes trade at or around +100 at most books.

However, I’m more interested in his receiving yardage prop. Schultz has made four appearances since rookie Nathaniel Dell went down with an injury. He averaged 49.8 receiving yards per game in those contests, clearing the 40.5 in three.

That’s it for my prop pick — let’s turn to what OddsShopper’s model wants action on. It recommends targeting another member o the Houston Texans, Devin Singletary, on the receiving yards market because of a big odds disparity between Fanatics and the rest of the rest of the market.

You’ll find the over 10.5 priced at -130 (56.5%) on Fanatics. However, almost every other book has this one set to 13.5. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 13.5 at -129 (56.3%). Using all that data, our model estimates the true odds — or a breakeven price — for the over 10.5 to be -148 (59.7%).

How does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!

Anytime touchdown scorer bets rarely have much value when they get shorter than -150 (60%), but there’s an obvious exception in Saturday’s Texans-Colts game. Running back Jonathan Taylor will cost you -154 (60.6%) at Caesars but clocks in at -175 (63.6%) or shorter everywhere else. Most books, including DraftKings and bet365, list him at -200 (66.7%) or shorter

The Colts should get several red-zone scoring chances on Saturday. The Texans allow 3.2 per game, which ranks 20th, and 3.3 on the road. The Colts generate 3.4 per game, which ranks 11th, but a monstrous 3.9 per game at home, which ranks seventh and ties them with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Once the Colts get into the red zone, they should look Taylor’s way. Taylor may trail Zack Moss in red-zone carries this year, but that’s largely because he missed so many games. Taylor has 26 carries inside the 20-yard line this year, six of which he turned into scores. Moss has 39 carries but only four scores on them.

Taylor should get a few carries near the goal line, and his odds of converting at least one are higher than the 60.6% that Caesars would have you believe.