The Houston Texans will visit the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5 as rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud looks to make history. Few rookie quarterbacks have looked as good right off the bat as Stroud has. However, he has a tough matchup with a Falcons defense that has been effective against opposing quarterbacks this year. Let’s dive into the Texans-Falcons player prop markets to pick the best bet for Week 5, which is a bet on C.J. Stroud.
Texans-Falcons Player Prop Bet for Week 5
Texans-Falcons Information
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Watch: FOX
When: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Who: C.J. Stroud at FanDuel
New to FanDuel? Check out our FanDuel promo code for $200 in bonus bets ➚➚
Texans-Falcons Player Prop Pick for C.J. Stroud
Few quarterbacks have begun their careers in better form than C.J. Stroud. He is averaging 303 passing yards per game thus far, which puts him on pace for the highest average since at least 2010. To give you some perspective, he is beating out Justin Herbert (289.1), Andrew Luck (273.4) and Joe Burrow (268.8) in the metric — and it’s not close. We bet on some regression to the mean last week, and, although Stroud ended up with 306 passing yards, he got 52 of them on a meaningless late-game touchdown pass to Nico Collins. Stroud benefited from multiple explosive plays against a Steelers defense that couldn’t get off the field and got no help from an offense that couldn’t stay on it.
This Sunday’s matchup with the Atlanta Falcons will go differently. The Falcons are yet to surrender 248 passing yards to any quarterback this season. Atlanta is allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game to the position (186.8). Three factors account for the Falcons’ success against opposing quarterbacks, two of which are defensive. For one, the Atlanta defense finally has a pass rush again. The Falcons rank fourth in pressure percentage (29.5%) and 17th in pass-rush win rate (45%). With Stroud’s offensive line missing multiple pieces, that could be a problem. Second, the pass rush and new safety Jessie Bates III have helped boundary cornerback A.J. Terrell get back on track — he owns a 71.9 PFF grade while Bates owns a 92.
Hungry for more? Check out the rest of our NFL player props for Week 5! ➚➚
But third, and most importantly, Atlanta’s brand of complementary football helps keep opposing quarterbacks off the field. Although the Falcons rank 11th in seconds per play (28), they rank ninth in rushing play percentage (45.6%) and 10th in opponent plays per game (61.8). Head coach Arthur Smith has put together a roster intended to win narrow games by keeping the opposing team off the field, which is exactly what he has to do with a quarterback like Desmond Ridder under center. Although Atlanta has gotten blown out the last two weeks, opposing quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence (204 passing yards) and Jared Goff (243) both failed to clear this number. Back the under at FanDuel Sportsbook and hope Stroud doesn’t make history.
Best Texans-Falcons Player Prop: C.J. Stroud Under 247.5 Passing Yards -115 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our power rankings and division previews. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 5 now!
