The Baltimore Ravens will host the Houston Texans in a battle between two of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud. Stroud and wide receiver Nico Collins cooked the Cleveland Browns for 96 yards and a score, but will they find similar success against the top-seeded Ravens? Let’s dive into the best Texans-Ravens player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Saturday, including a pick for Gus Edwards. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Texans-Ravens Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Divisional
Texans-Ravens Odds for Saturday
Odds via BetMGM
Texans: +350 | Ravens: -450
Texans +9.5: -110 | Ravens -9.5: -110
Over 43.5: -110 | Under 43.5: -110
Time: Saturday, Jan. 20 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Texans-Ravens Player Prop Pick
Isaiah Likely O/U 36.5 Receiving Yards
If you watched last Saturday’s Browns-Texans game, Cleveland’s collapse may have led you to forget about what David Njoku did. The athletic tight end reeled in seven receptions for 93 yards, including a huge 45-yard gain in the opening quarter.
But the Texans weren’t just cooked by Njoku. Backup tight end Harrison Bryant reeled in four catches for 65 yards, including a 47-yard chunk play. Coincidentally, PlayerProfiler’s best comparable player for Isaiah Likely is Bryant.
Njoku and Bryant’s successes were completely predictable. We laddered Njoku’s receiving yards last week for a huge payday because the Texans could not stop opposing tight ends in the regular season. Houston allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to the position (60.2) in the regular season. Don’t expect DeMeco Ryans to suddenly fix that issue overnight.
Like Njoku and Bryant, Likely is a great athlete. The former Coastal Carolina Chanticleer wasn’t quite who the Ravens wanted with the 139th overall pick in the 2022 draft — that was now-Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin III — but his 84th percentile burst and demonstrated chemistry with Lamar Jackson make him a threat to score whenever he steps on the field.
Likely has played in nine games without Mark Andrews in the lineup. He is averaging 50.3 receiving yards in those contests, surpassing his receiving yardage total (36.5) in all but three of those games, going for 50-plus in four and 70-plus in three. I’m backing Likely to clear the 36.5 at BetMGM, which has this prop priced at an off-market -110, as well as the 50 (+170 at DraftKings) and the 70 (+450 at DraftKings). If you haven’t signed up for BetMGM, you can get $158 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Texans-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Isaiah Likely Over 36.5 Receiving Yards -110 at BetMGM
Texans-Ravens Model Player Prop
Xavier Hutchinson O/U 10.5 Receiving Yards
Now that you’ve seen my top Texans-Ravens player prop, let’s talk about what OddsShopper’s Premium tools think is a good bet. Our model works for the NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB — as well as other sports — so no matter what time of year it is, you’re getting sharp bets.
The model wants action on wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson to stay under 10.5 receiving yards. Hutchinson caught two passes for 12 yards last week. Despite Houston’s injury-riddled receiving room, Hutchinson played on only 46.5% of the snaps. He has beaten this number just three times in his short career.
So how does the model work? OddsShopper’s Premium tools index the odds across the market, weigh odds for the sharpness of each book and then adjust for hold. The result is the wager’s true odds, which it then compares to the actual odds to identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”!
In this case, the model wants action on Hutchinson because Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists him at odds of -143 (58.6%) to stay under the 9.5. By weighing that number heavily and adjusting for the extra yard, the model calculates the true odds for the under 10.5 to be -128, which we can buy for -110 (52.4%) at PointsBet or -113 (53.1%) at FanDuel, which is more than enough edge to justify a wager.
Texans-Ravens Player Prop Pick: Xavier Hutchinson Under 10.5 -113 at FanDuel
Texans-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
The odds for goal-line back Gus Edwards to score a touchdown on Saturday afternoon are a joke, right? FanDuel is offering him for +125. Pinnacle lists this one for just +111. Sure, betting on a guy like Edwards may not be as exciting as rooting for a Lamar Jackson touchdown, and it may not pay out as much as a long-shot bet on someone like Devin Duvernay or Charlie Kolar, but, at this price, it’s by far your best option.
The Texans, for all they’ve done well defensively, ended the regular season ranked 18th in red-zone trips allowed per game (3.1). To their credit, they allowed opposing offenses to convert for a touchdown 53.6% of the time, which ranks 13th. But with Baltimore’s offense, which ranked seventh in red-zone conversion rate (61.8%) and sixth at home (67.7%), they’ll have a tough task ahead of them.
Houston’s defense has been vulnerable to running backs in the red zone all season. The Texans allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to the position in the regular season, and they coughed up another rushing score to goal-line back Kareem Hunt last week (as well as a receiving score). That’s great news for Edwards, who has a dominant command of Baltimore’s red-zone rushing attempts.
Edwards, especially now that Keaton Mitchell is out, is the primary threat to score in Baltimore’s backfield. He has carried the ball 30 times inside the 10-yard line, generating 2.2 yards per carry and 13 touchdowns on those looks. A whopping 19 of those touches came within the five-yard line — good for a 63.3% share of all possible carries — and he turned 12 of them into scores. I’m backing Edwards to score once for +125 at FanDuel and to score twice for +750 at FanDuel.
Texans-Ravens Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet: Gus Edwards +125 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
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