After getting a dose of meaningful college football on Saturday, football is off the menu again until Thursday — unless you count preseason football. Every week, I’ll post my top picks by Tuesday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my NFL preseason Week 3 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Texans-Saints betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL preseason bet!
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down the upcoming NFL season — make sure to check out the rest of our NFL articles, including our AFC West and NFC West previews. Come back during the NFL season for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets — or try it out for Week 1 now!
Texans-Saints Pick & Preseason Betting Prediction
Texans-Saints Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texans: +125 | Saints: -145
Texans +2.5: -110 | Saints -2.5: -110
Over 38: -110 | Under 38: -110
Texans-Saints Pick & Prediction
Week 3 of the NFL preseason — and the NFL preseason as a whole — will come to an end on Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints take on the Houston Texans. The odds have shifted against us for our Texans-Saints pick from the early week column, but I’m still relatively confident and like the new number. The Saints announced that they won’t use Derek Carr in Week 3, but that shouldn’t have moved the needle as much as it did — no Carr just means Jameis Winston takes over, and he is more than capable of beating a bad Texas team.
The Saints have looked solid in the preseason to this point but have also been using starters like Carr more than most teams. The Texans haven’t looked great despite using first-round rookie C.J. Stroud early in both games. Houston’s offense has averaged a pathetic 4.2 yards per play this preseason. In contrast, New Orleans’ offense has averaged 5 yards per play.
The Saints and Texans canceled joint practices this week, likely to prevent injuries, which have plagued Houston’s already-questionable roster. Third-string quarterback Case Keenum, who would normally provide some valuable veteran reps, missed Week 2 and could sit again in Week 3 — although he has since returned to practice. Rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, who has looked great in the preseason, picked up an injury before last weekend’s game against the Dolphins and was held out, but, like Keenum, has returned to practice. Several offensive linemen have also picked up injury tags as well, including starting right tackle Tytus Howard.
The Saints have some injuries of their own to worry about, but they’ll likely benefit from an overly-cautious Texans team, which only magnifies their massive advantage at quarterback. The Saints used Derek Carr briefly in Week 1 before pivoting exclusively to backup Jameis Winston and third-string Jake Haener in Week 2. The duo has looked pretty good to this point and has recorded 6 NY/A with two touchdowns and one interception. While that isn’t elite production, it’s far better than the 4.9 NY/A Mills and Stroud have combined to produce.
The Saints are only a 3.5-point favorite over the Texans, which doesn’t reflect just how bad Houston has looked in the preseason. The five-catch, 65-yard explosion from Tank Dell in Week 1 was impressive, but even if he suits up again in Week 3, he doesn’t move the needle enough for me to justify this number. New Orleans hasn’t been perfect, but we’ve seen more than enough out of their players to justify backing them to beat the Texans by more than a field goal. It helps that head coach Dennis Allen has been willing to kick field goals on fourth down instead of trying to convert — and that kicker Wil Lutz can actually hit them.
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Texans-Saints NFL Preseason Pick: New Orleans -2.5 -110 at FanDuel
