The NFL work week begins in Detroit as the Lions put their 10-game win streak on the line hosting a Green Bay Packers team out for revenge. With a win, the Lions can clinch a playoff spot. With a Packers victory, Green Bay splits the season series with hopes of still winning the division. With so much on the line and a total hovering around 51 points, there should be some good opportunity to find value in the props world. Here are my expert Thursday Night Football player prop picks with some help from Portfolio EV’s +EV NFL bets.
Thursday Night Football Player Prop Picks: Expert Packers-Lions Prop Bets
Expert Packers-Lions Prop Bets: David Montgomery Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
The run game fuels the Lions. With two backs each amassing 10 touchdowns, Detroit’s season has been defined by the rushing attack. Jared Goff can light it up, and there are plenty of options in the passing game, but this has been a year of the running backs in Motown. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs should continue that path to success if the Lions are to win tonight.
Montgomery might be a fixture on the ground, but don’t count him out in the passing attack. His targets come and go, and he can be invisible at times — last week he caught his lone target — but he’s had moments. Those typically come with the matchup, which should be in play tonight. His total sits at 15.5 receiving yards — a number he’s eclipsed nine times this season. There are two solid reasons I love the over, and fantastic price Portfolio EV found helps here.
The first reason is volume. Montgomery doesn’t need a ton of it to make this number happen. He hit 16-plus receiving yards in two games with just one catch. It’s a huge advantage to have a back like Montgomery catch a pass in open space, able to make it into a larger gain.
The Packers are not getting Jaire Alexander back, hurting their secondary. The Lions know it, as do the Packers. There should be some additional coverage blankets in the secondary, leaving open the flats and first level of the defense. The overcompensation of Green Bay’s secondary, aided by tighter coverage by linebackers, will allow some space for Montgomery.
Looking at our tools, it’s easy to see this is best bet at BetMGM. We get a fantastic return at -110 versus laying -119 true odds, or even worse at other books. Finding a play like this and ensuring you are getting the proper price is the first step to profit!
Expert Packers-Lions Prop Bets: Christian Watson Under 3.5 Receptions
Looking at the other side of the ball, this Christian Watson prop stands out the most. The Packers passing attack has dealt with a consistent number of injuries and shuffling of receivers — Watson included.
This is actually a high number for what we’ve seen so far out of him, despite it seeming low for the level of talent. It’s been difficult for Jordan Love and Watson to establish a consistent connection, and I’m not sure how that will change even with some injury flow on the Lions side.
The injuries are all on the defensive line, and Detroit returns two players in its secondary, making it even harder on Watson to break free. Romeo Doubs is inactive, but that shouldn’t bump up Watson’s target share by anything significant; the coverage and focus are going to outweigh it. Watson has cleared this number just two times this season as he’s struggled to dominate another team’s defense. In both of those games, Watson only settled for four grabs.
There isn’t much to indicate the Lions secondary is slowing down, and Jayden Reed has benefited far more from the lineup instability than Watson. It’s safe to look at Watson as a second or third option, even deferring to any tight end or back leaking out of the backfield. I love Watson to remain in more of an inconsistent play in this offense, knowing his ceiling is far tighter to this total than his floor.
Once again we get a fantastic number off Portfolio EV by betting this at BetMGM. The -125 odds beat the -128 true odds and the rest of the domestic books. There is nothing better than the analysis and market-based approach coming together. Play the under with Watson.
