Today is a great day as we are blessed with two Monday Night Football games. The 9-3 Dolphins are 13.5-point home favorites over the 4-8 Titans in a game with a 45.5 total. Also on the East Coast, the 4-8 Giants are 6-point home underdogs against the 6-6 Packers, who have won three straight games. The bad news is you’ll need two screens to watch as both of these games kick off at 8:15 PM ET. Let’s get to the Underdog Fantasy NFL picks, starting with Tua Tagovailoa.
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Underdog NFL Player Predictions | Dec. 11
Tua Tagovailoa H/L 286.5 Passing Yards
The Miami Dolphins are 13.5-point home favorites tonight, and I like them to cover that. You would think Tua Tagovailoa was averaging 300+ passing yards with the amount of points the Dolphins are scoring, but he’s not. 288.1 on the season is just 1.5 yards more than this prop. He’s actually only gone over 287 yards in just five of the 12 games. All those games were competitive, with the exception of the 70-point embarrassment of the Broncos back in Week 3. We saw last week Tyreek Hill get 157 yards, and Tagovailoa still only finished with 280 passing yards. With all three running backs healthy for Miami, they should run the ball more in a game they can win easily.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Tua Tagovailoa Less Than 286.5 Passing Yards
Rashan Gary H/L 0.5 Sacks
This is rated the best NFL play of the day by OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool. With an 11% EV rating and a 61% xWin rating, we have to include this in our entry. Rashan Gary gets a favorable matchup against the Giants, who have been sacked 69 times in 12 games, 11 more than any other team. Gray ranks 16th in the NFL with nine total sacks on the season and should be able to push through an offensive line that ranks dead last in pass blocking, according to PFF.
All the other books are heavy on the over, while DraftKings has this prop at 0.75. I’m going to agree with the tool here and say Gary will put Tommy DeVito on the ground tonight.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Rashan Gary Higher than 0.5 Sacks
Jayden Reed H/L 42.5 Receiving Yards
Using OddsShopper’s Positive EV Bets tool, I landed on the over for Jayden Reed’s receiving yards prop. Other books have this prop between 43.5 and 46.5. The Giants have allowed the 13th-most yards and 10th most receptions to wide receivers on the season. The Packers’ offense has been rolling the past three games as Jordan Love seems to have figured something out.
Reed has seen five-plus targets and made four or more receptions in each of the last four games, and he is averaging 42.8 yards per game on the season. Christian Watson is out for Green Bay tonight, opening up a few more targets for Reed. Love has thrown for more than 267 yards in each of the last four games, and his passing yards prop has been bumped up by 8 yards since Wednesday.
Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Jayden Reed Higher Than 42.5 Receiving Yards
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