This week’s Monday Night Football matchup features two seven-win teams aiming for another signature primetime victory. With the total set at 51, the game promises plenty of scoring, adding excitement to the prop market. Here are my two favorite NFL Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions for the game – let’s dive in!
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Underdog Fantasy NFL Pick’em Predictions Today
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Justin Herbert H/L Than 21.5 Completions
Justin Herbert has guided the Los Angeles Chargers to a 7-3 record this season, but while he’s been effective, his numbers haven’t been eye-popping. Specifically, he’s not piling up completions, averaging just 17.6 on 28 attempts for 219 yards per game.
Herbert has attempted 30+ passes in only four games this season. However, I expect tonight’s matchup to push him into the 30s, with a corresponding increase in completions. The Baltimore Ravens have an elite rushing defense, ranking second in both EPA and success rate against the run. But their pass defense has been a glaring weakness, ranking 29th in dropback EPA and allowing a league-high 26 completions per game.
In what should be a competitive, back-and-forth game, the Chargers will likely need to rely on their passing attack to move the ball. That sets Herbert up to complete at least 22 passes tonight.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Justin Herbert Higher Than 21.5 Completions
Derrick Henry H/L Than 3.5 Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry has been a force this season, racking up 1,185 rushing yards on 197 carries with 15 total touchdowns. However, the area I’m focusing on isn’t his ground game – but rather in through the air.
His receiving yards prop is set at a very low mark of 3.5 yards. It makes sense, though, considering he’s totaled just 10 catches for 96 receiving yards in 11 games. Although, he has gone over this mark in 7/11 contests – and I’m banking on him doing so once again.
The Chargers allow opposing tailbacks five receptions for 32 receiving yards per game. I understand Justice Hill is their usual passing back, but I don’t see as much value in his prop line as I do with Henry’s.
Furthermore, Stokastic’s industry-leading NFL DFS projections have Henry at 9 receiving yards. I realize it’s not the typical Henry prop bet that we look forward to sweating out, but it’s a wager that’s presenting an edge and I want to exploit that.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Derrick Henry Higher Than 3.5 Receiving Yards
