It’s early October, so the Kansas City Chiefs could roll into Monday night’s game in a typical slumber while still handling the visiting Saints. The spread may sit a 5.5 points, but this one could go extreme in either case, as the Chiefs haven’t hit that “turn it up” mode. However, Travis Kelce still hasn’t reached his typical peak yet and is primed for a breakout game — something the Saints would be unable to stop. Derek Carr and New Orleans will look to steal one on the road as we look to hit another 3x winner with our Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions (thanks to OddsShopper’s Underdog Optimizer).
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Underdog Fantasy NFL Pick’em Predictions Today
Travis Kelce H/L Than 5.5 Receptions
I admittedly didn’t check to see if Taylor Swift will be in attendance — but I’m relatively positive Kelce will be. He shocked the world two times over, the first by even landing Swift, the second going four straight games to open the season without a touchdown. At some point there’s going to be a massive breakout game — which we saw signs of minus the touchdown last week in Los Angeles. With a return home and an inconsistent part of the offense around him, Kelce will see a boatload of targets tonight from Patrick Mahomes.
It’s more than just the volume game with Kelce. He’s making up for a ground game that is most likely leaning on Kareem Hunt. Isiah Pacheco is done, and rookie Carson Steele is a fumble machine. It’s prime time for the Chiefs but still the regular season, meaning they will do enough to grind these wins. It’s why this game spread sits at a ridiculous 5.5, just baiting you to play a side.
I see the value in methodical drives that keep a Saints threat in Alvin Kamara off the field. The easiest way for Kansas City to control clock tonight with a win is by peppering Kelce.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Travis Kelce Higher Than 5.5 Receptions
Rashid Shaheed H/L Than 6.0 Targets
This jumped out as a rather low number based on the expected volume for Rashid Shaheed. Make no mistake, Shaheed did serious damage in the first two games of the season, but they were both blowout wins. There wasn’t a full game’s worth of typical offensive calls, as in both cases the Saints dominated. While he put up big numbers, he only had a combined nine targets between the two games.
The Saints were grounded against the Eagles, and the offense was out of sync from the jump. Shaheed still netted five targets in a game where he was held without a catch. There was still an effort to get him the ball despite the offense slowing down to a clunker pace.
The lone Saints game that played out like an actual football game was last week in Atlanta. Shaheed returned to a prime focal point of the offense as he should continue tonight in Kansas City. The 11 targets were a season-high smash, and it should regress a little bit, but Carr and the Saints staff will look Shaheed’s way on multiple levels — from quick throws to deep routes.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Rashid Shaheed Higher Than 6.0 Targets
