The NFL returns on Thursday with what’s hopefully a more competitive game than the one we saw last week. The Los Angeles Rams will host the Minnesota Vikings with both teams headed in vastly different directions. Before you leave, I recommend checking out our guides to NFL player prop betting or anytime touchdown betting to refine your process, but now, let’s dive into our Vikings-Rams player prop pick and anytime touchdown bet for Thursday Night Football, including a player prop pick for Cooper Kupp. Click here for more NFL expert picks!
Vikings-Rams Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday
Vikings-Rams Player Prop Pick for Cooper Kupp
Editor’s note (10/24/24 at 11 a.m. ET): The Los Angeles Rams are now “optimistic” that wide receiver Puka Nacua will suit up on Thursday.
When the Los Angeles Rams face the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football, it could be the last time we get to see quarterback Matthew Stafford throw to wide receiver Cooper Kupp. The two brought a Super Bowl to L.A., but with the Rams likely facing a rebuild and the trade deadline fast approaching, both players could be on the move.
But before one of them gets shipped out of town, Thursday’s contest is a great spot for them to put on a show. Yes, the Vikings defense is stingy, but it’s still giving up the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts (203). Minnesota is also coming off a loss to Detroit in which “slot merchant” Amon-Ra St. Brown racked up 112 yards.
St. Brown has played 44.3% of his snaps in the slot this season, well behind Kupp (69.3%), and if there is a soft spot in the Minnesota defense, it’s over the middle. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme forces quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly, and slot receivers running inside have been a frequent outlet.
Aside from St. Brown, Jayden Reed (64.9% slot share) also racked up 139 receiving yards versus Minnesota. Not every slot receiver will pop against this defense, but Kupp has a great opportunity to do so as the clear-cut lead receiving option in this offense — and a potential trade looming.
Kupp’s receiving yardage prop (69.5) is more in line with his per-game average this year (73.5) than last year (61.4), but with Puka Nacua likely still out, his 2022 average (90.2) carries a bit more weight. I would have set Kupp’s receiving yardage prop at 75 or higher, so let’s play the over 69.5 for -110 at DraftKings. Pinnacle, a sharp offshore, is charging -111 for it.
Vikings-Rams Player Prop Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 69.5 Receiving Yards -115 at DraftKings
For more profitable sports betting picks, check out Portfolio EV — we’re up to 730-633 (4.9% ROI) on all NFL player prop bets with an OS Rating of 2 or higher this season. Read our guide to NFL player prop betting strategy for more information!
Vikings-Rams Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
The best anytime touchdown scorer bet for Thursday Night Football is Aaron Jones for -110 at Fanatics. Most other books are (rightly) somewhere between -120 and -135. Pinnacle is at -115. Jones leads the Vikings in red-zone carries (12) and in red-zone targets (7). Only four other running backs can say that.
Against an L.A. defense that has coughed up six touchdowns to running backs in six games, Jones’ odds should be much shorter than -110. That said, you won’t make much money if you’re only betting on -110 anytime touchdown scorer props. I’ll pick out another for you, as a treat.
Let’s assume Jones gets close to the end zone but doesn’t cross the goal line. If the Vikings wanted to rotate him out for a down, who would be the next man up? You could make a case for Ty Chandler, but while he has four carries inside the 20, he has zero inside the five.
Instead, if the Vikings get close to the goal line (which they should do with ease against a bad Rams defense), fullback C.J. Ham could sub in — or, at least, get a handoff while lined up as the lead blocker. He already has one red-zone carry this year (which came in inside the five), and he turned it into a score.
Betting on Jones to score a touchdown (-110) or even two touchdowns is a better play than one for C.J. Ham, but at odds of +1400 at FanDuel (and only +1300 at Pinnacle), it’s not a bad idea. Buying even the slightest misprice can be a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy.
Vikings-Rams Anytime Touchdown Bet: Aaron Jones -110 at Fanatics & C.J. Ham +1400 at FanDuel
