Who doesn’t love a good old AFC North battle under cold, rainy skies on a Thursday night? Whether you’re here for the football or just the bets, we have you covered. Sides, props and, of course, some touchdown bets — we’re hammering it all tonight. Let’s make it happen with these Week 12 TNF best bets for Steelers-Browns. Be sure to check out our NFL player prop betting strategy guide — or check here for more free NFL expert picks and +EV NFL bets!
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Week 12 Thursday Night Football Best Bets for Steelers-Browns
The Steelers are laying 3.5 points on the road against the Browns in a game with a low total of 37.5 points. This line opened at 4.5 and has since shifted to 3.5, with some books shading toward the Browns.
Common sense says take the Steelers. They’re the more complete team. But in the NFL, especially with divisional home dogs in the AFC North, common sense doesn’t always win. Case in point: Last week, we bet the Steelers as 3.5-point dogs against the Ravens, and they won outright.
Both teams bring elite pass rushes and strong run defenses to the table. Cleveland’s secondary has been a weak spot this year, but they’re healthier now and have historically performed much better at home. On the flip side, the Steelers pass protection hasn’t been great. Their run game? Not exactly inspiring in tough matchups like this one.
Weather will play a factor too — near-freezing temperatures, heavy rain and possibly snow. This is shaping up to be a classic low-scoring slugfest that could come down to the final possession. I’m leaning toward the Browns staying within the 3.5 points, especially at home.
If you’re looking at totals, I like the under at 37.5, especially with the hook. This is a key number for NFL betting, and in a game like this, where defenses dominate and weather plays a role, the under is the play.
Week 12 TNF Best Bet: Steelers-Browns Under 37.5 (-135, Fliff)
Best NFL Player Prop Bet for Thursday Night Football
This line is 15.5 some places, so we’re getting value on FanDuel. Ford saw limited work last week because the Browns were trailing, but he still out-snapped Nick Chubb 41 to 22. Chubb hasn’t looked like himself since returning from that devastating knee injury.
With tonight’s game script favoring a low-scoring, ground-heavy battle, Ford should get enough opportunities to hit 15 rushing yards. It’s not pretty, but we’ll take it.
Best NFL Player Prop Bet: Jerome Ford Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-110, FanDuel)
Best TNF Touchdown Bets
George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+220)
This wouldn’t be a Thursday night video without a touchdown pick. George Pickens is a freak of nature with an insane catch radius. He’s been Wilson’s favorite red zone target since Wilson took over at quarterback, and the Browns have allowed 12 of their 14 passing touchdowns to wide receivers this season. At +220, I’m rolling with Pickens to find the end zone.
Darnell Washington Anytime Touchdown (+1000)
Let’s have some fun. Washington has only run 14 routes per game but has been targeted on 26% of those routes. He’s a massive target, and in a low-scoring game like this, the Steelers could take a shot at him in the red zone. Sprinkle a little on this long shot, and let’s celebrate if it hits.
