The NFL added the Steelers-Bills game to the Monday docket after days of snow shoveling and preparation in Buffalo. There are no weather issues in Tampa, but there are certainly concerns surrounding both the Buccaneers and Eagles. Philadelphia is already down one of their top players in A.J. Brown, and Jalen Hurts is playing hurt. So is Baker Mayfield, as he remains questionable heading into Monday night’s game. These two games are on the opposite side of expected scoring, as Buffalo’s weather may limit everything, while both secondaries are putrid in the later game. Here’s the best Wild Card first touchdown prop for Steelers-Bills and Eagles-Buccaneers
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Wild Card Monday First Touchdown Picks for Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers First Touchdown Scorer
Hopefully the Steelers were watching the Packers’ game plan against the Cowboys because that’s the only way to establish a lead in Buffalo. Mason Rudolph isn’t a noodle-arm; he can make some throws down field, it’s just not advised if winds do gust north of 20 mph. There will be a built-in script for Pittsburgh to mix up its backs, with Najee Harris getting the boatload of carries and Jaylen Warren getting receptions.
Pittsburgh is also going up against a rather average run defense in the Bills, something that’s been middle of the road in far better conditions. Anyone on offense carrying the football will have an advantage over a defender trying to gain footing, especially with snow falling throughout this game. The Bills are at home and, if they win the toss, will most likely defer, while the Steelers desperately need to strike first. Their best way of doing that is attacking the most vulnerable spot: Rushing the ball with Harris.
They may not get down to the red zone or even goal line with Harris, but he’s going to close it out with a touchdown. We are betting it’s the first drive.
Steelers-Bills First Touchdown Picks: Najee Harris +900 at DraftKings for 0.25 Units
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers First Touchdown Scorer
The Eagles are in trouble. They are down their best player on offense not named Jalen Hurts or Lane Johnson. They are limping in — not just because of Hurts’ middle finger — with a bad stretch of losses coming into this game. Philadelphia can control most of that, even Hurts’ injury. There are ways to game plan quicker throws, less action from Hurts overall by giving it to D’Andre Swift or consistently treating it throughout the game. One thing the Eagles can’t change is how bad they stink defending the pass.
Granted, the Bucs are not better, but the Eagles just give up so many big plays to receivers. They also struggle to defend the tight end, which is further amplified by a shrinking pass rush. Mike Evans had a field day against the Eagles the first time around, including a touchdown, but he’s not the best value for this play. Matt Patricia is as clueless a defensive coordinator as Sean Desai, so nothing is going to change from an overall standpoint on defense, but the Eagles will at least try to adjust on Evans.
There’s nothing like taking advantage of a bad secondary with even worse coaching that’s trying to make a major adjustment before a playoff game. That’s a parlay of circumstances and should leave Chris Godwin in solo coverage too often to ignore. He’s currently 14-1 on OddsShopper and worth a play.
Eagles-Buccaneers First Touchdown Picks: Chris Godwin +1400 at DraftKings for 0.25 Units
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