The Boston Bruins will host the Edmonton Oilers tonight after beating them 3-2 in late February. The Oilers, who have been on a rocky 5-3-2 stretch, must pick up some points to get back in the Pacific Division race. However, they’ll have a difficult time doing so against Boston. My NHL model likes Boston in tonight’s Edmonton Oilers-Boston Bruins matchup — and it loves this NHL bet at odds of +140 at DraftKings. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools to ensure you get the best price.
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Best NHL Bet Today | Edmonton Oilers-Boston Bruins
Edmonton Oilers vs. Boston Bruins (-1.5)
No NHL team is hotter than the Boston Bruins right now. They have gone 10-0-0 through their last 10 games and lead the NHL in goal differential (+105). Yet despite their recent dominance, the books feel comfortable listing Boston in the plus money to win Thursday’s game over the Edmonton Oilers by a two-goal margin. The Oilers rank a lowly fourth in the Pacific Division with an acceptable-but-uninspiring goal differential (33).
My model is low on Edmonton for one key reason: efficiency. The Oilers rank a dismal 11th in goals for above expected, or GFAA (-3.5), in the 5-on-5. In contrast, Boston’s defense leads the NHL in goals against above expected, or GAAE (-34.6), in the 5-on-5. Boston’s offense also outranks the Oilers in GFAA in the 5-on-5 (11.9), so the Bruins should dominate in standard situations.
But Boston won’t need to rely on staying out of the penalty kill to blow out the Oilers. Although Edmonton ranks a strong third in GFAA (9.3) in the power play, the Bruins rank a solid seventh in GAAE (-2.3) when down a man. In contrast, Edmonton’s penalty kill ranks an atrocious 29th in GAAE (8.1), while Boston ranks seventh in GFAE when up a man (5.8). As a result, Boston should have more of an advantage on the power play than Edmonton tonight.
Although it seems intellectually lazy to keep backing the Boston Bruins, the books routinely overrate the Edmonton Oilers. FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Edmonton only a 31% chance of winning, while my model gives them a 26% chance. But the books, who list the Oilers at +140 on the moneyline, are giving them a whopping 42% chance of winning. With Boston available at moneyline odds of only -165 (62%), bettors can find value by backing the Bruins on either the moneyline or the puckline tonight at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s lock them in at +140 to win by at least two goals — readers who are yet to register can even score $150 in bonus bets with a $5 winning moneyline wager.
However, that’s not the only edge bettors can get on the Bruins tonight. OddsShopper’s betting model, which indexes betting lines across multiple books to help you find the best deals, likes one NHL player prop bet for Brad Marchand this evening. Bettors can buy him to go over 0.5 assists at +130, a line which has an expected ROI of 6% — one of the best plays on today’s slate. Readers who want to find the model’s other top plays should subscribe to OddsShopper Premium!
Best NHL Flames-Coyotes Bet: Boston Bruins -1.5 (+140 for 0.5 Unit) at DraftKings
