The mid-rebuild Arizona Coyotes aren’t competing for the Stanley Cup this year. However, that hasn’t kept them from going on a 5-1-4 run through their last 10 games, a streak that includes a win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Although Arizona isn’t perfect, the books and betting public are still treating them like they’re terrible. My NHL model disagrees, which underpins today’s NHL bet for the Calgary Flames-Arizona Coyotes matchup. Make sure to check out OddsShopper’s tools to ensure you get the best price.
Best NHL Bet Today | Calgary Flames-Arizona Coyotes
Calgary Flames (-230) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Although it’s usually unwise to bet on rebuilding teams, as they don’t have much incentive to win, the Arizona Coyotes have been the exception to that rule lately. They have helped make moneyline and puck line bettors some serious cash over their last few games, even with star defenseman Jakob Chychrun benched for trade-related reasons. Tonight’s matchup against the Calgary Flames shouldn’t end that streak.
The Coyotes have played efficient hockey, especially relative to their opponents. Their starting goalie, Karel Vejmelka, ranks 12th in goals saved above expected, or GSAE, with 12.9 — far ahead of Calgary’s Jakob Markstrom (-0.6), who ranks 63rd, and Dan Vladar (-3.9), who ranks 75th. The Coyotes also rank fifth in goal differential above expected (GDAE) at 17. The Flames rank 21st (-10.7) in the metric.
Calgary has fallen off considerably since last season. The Flames won the Pacific Division with a 50-21-11 record (111 points) but are on track for only 93 points this year and a 47% chance at the playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight. The Coyotes have functionally no chance at the playoffs but should rack up 73 points, 24 more than what they have now, and those will have to come from somewhere. A mediocre Flames squad that has gone 4-4-2 through its last 10 contests makes for a juicy target.
Worse, Calgary has another matchup scheduled for tomorrow. The Flames will head to Las Vegas for a battle against the Vegas Golden Knights, the current Pacific Division leaders. Calgary is yet to win the first game of a back-to-back this season. They have lost to the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets, both of which rank worse than the Coyotes in the standings and in most meaningful metrics, in similar spots this season.
The books opened the bidding on Calgary at -205, but bettors skeptical of Arizona’s lines without Chychrun have bid that number down to as low as -235. Fortunately, that creates plenty of extra buyback value. Bettors should head to BetMGM for the best price on the puck line. Readers who are yet to register at BetMGM can get $1,000 in first-bet insurance! That said, make sure to get a bit of action on the Arizona moneyline at +195 at DraftKings Sportsbook as well.
Best NHL Flames-Coyotes Bet: Coyotes +1.5 (-140 for 0.15 Unit) at BetMGM
Also Bet: Coyotes Moneyline (+195 for 0.1 Unit) at DraftKings
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