It’s been a great start to the NHL Playoff for both our best bets and for the game action, and we’re hitting the ice again on Monday. Here we will find some picks with the help of our NHL betting model, specifically a bet for Max Domi and a Kings-Oilers game line. If you’re hungry for more, check out our NHL betting tools or our other NHL articles! Also, check out our guide about how to bet on NHL player props.
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NHL Player Prop & Best Bets: Monday, April 22
NHL Player Prop Bet: Max Domi
We’re 1-0 on our NHL Playoff player props — Kyle Palmieri couldn’t crack the scoresheet, so we hit the under on 0.5 points for him Saturday evening. And as Loughy will tell you, unders are the route to profitably prop betting most of the time — especially with NHL points bets.
Today’s lucky recipient of a points under play is Toronto’s Max Domi, whose chances of recording a goal or assists are slim enough that most of the industry has the under on 0.5 points at -165 or lower.
Well, BetRivers chose to go a different direction. The -132 odds there are well below OddsShopper’s True Odds of -155 and making the under nearly 7% +EV. Every other sportsbook is comfortably -EV, so BetRivers is truly the only option for playing Domi’s under. This prop has so much value that it is even earning a whopping $41 recommended bet size according to OddsShopper.
Domi averaged a little over a point every other game during the season (0.59 points per game) and recorded at least one in 33 of 80 games (41.3%). That helps to explain the strong 61% expected on the points under, and though Domi has a couple of dream linemates with Auston Matthews and Tyler Bertuzzi, he also has a tough matchup with Boston’s first line. Domi also doesn’t play on the first power play, which is a bit of a hit to his scoring potential as well.
Either get this bet in fast at BetRivers or keep an eye on line movement before placing, as there is a strong chance BetRivers will come to its senses. Until then, this is the lock bet of the Monday NHL Playoff slate.
NHL Player Prop Pick Today: Max Domi Under 0.5 Points (-132 at BetRivers)
For the best price currently available, check out our Max Domi points live odds page!
NHL Best Bet: Kings-Oilers First Period Total
We pushed this game out Saturday as the best game line from the first set of NHL Playoff games, and little has changed. One thing different, however, is the book of choice for this bet. SuperBook had the Kings-Oilers first period under at +110 a couple days ago, but money coming in on that side dropped the odds to +100.
Circa Sportsbook, meanwhile, has held firm at +105, going against the rest of the books, which are shortening the odds across the board. For reference, Caesars had this at +105 on Saturday and now it’s -105.
One thing that has changed in our favor is OddsShopper’s expected win rate, which has bumped up to 49% from 48%. The True Odds have dipped slightly to +103 from +106, but Circa is still +EV at +105
The Kings and Oilers were two strong offensive teams in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal and the plus money makes up for the win percentage slightly favoring the first period over on 1.5. Keep the bet size small here, as the EV is slightly under 0.9%. But right now OddsShopper doesn’t like any game line other than this one on the Monday slate.
NHL Best Bet Today: Kings-Oilers Under 1.5 First Period Goals (+105, Circa)
OddsShopper’s NHL Tools & Tips
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