Why Connor Bedard WON’T Win Calder Trophy This Year

The NHL season is halfway home, and at least one award is totally sewn up. Connor Bedard has been so overwhelmingly the best rookie that it doesn’t make sense to even entertain the thought of another stealing Bedard’s Calder Trophy. At least, that was what the odds had been saying.

But now Bedard is out for an extended period of time due to a broken jaw after suffering a rough hit from New Jersey’s Brendan Smith. Now, I’m not here to debate whether or not Smith intentionally hurt Bedard to help one of his own teammate’s Calder chances (he didn’t); instead, we’re going to break down how this Calder Trophy race is now far more open than Blackhawks fans and the odds may suggest. In fact, the best Calder Trophy bet may in fact be someone from the field.

Why Connor Bedard WON’T Win Calder Trophy

Connor Bedard Has Been Running Away With Calder …

Connor Bedard‘s odds to win Calder have actually gotten shorter in the last few days since undergoing surgery on his broken jaw. The timeline has not changed — he’s still looking at six to eight weeks on the mend — and yet, he remains the top candidate.

Look, there is certainly no denying who has been the best rookie in the National Hockey League this season. Bedard leads all of them in points with 33, goals with 15 and assists with 18 (tied). His plus-minus trails by a considerable margin, but much of that can be explained away by A) the Blackhawks’ extreme lack of talent, and B) Bedard consistently working on Chicago’s top lines alongside that lack of talent against other teams’ best talent.

But those counting stats are not going to hold up much longer, and there are other options.

… But The Field Is Gaining

Two stud defensemen lead the rest of the pack: Brock Faber and Luke Hughes. Faber is racking up assists like crazy from the blue line (tied for rookie lead with Bedard) and also sees the ice as much as anyone in the entire NHL. Hughes, meanwhile, has seven goals and 16 assists and also comes from hockey’s version of the Von Erich family (in terms of their familial talent for the sport, not the horrible stuff that happened to them). In a vacuum Hughes’ family doesn’t really matter, but it has been a point of focus since he joined the Devils last year and has thus helped increase his notoriety.

Faber and Hughes are already high-end offensive defensemen, and both are likely to build a comfortable lead in the assists category on Bedard before the latter returns. Adam Fantilli and Marco Rossi also are not far behind Bedard in goals and have plenty of time to close the gap; they could even surpass him by a significant-enough margin. Points is the only area where Bedard has a huge lead among rookies, but even there, with all four of the other top rookies in striking distance, the odds of him keeping that lead are slim to none.

The reality is that, barring other injuries or major slumps, one of these rookies — likely Hughes or Faber — should be the Calder favorite by the time Bedard returns. If they do not take the lead, it is because bettors will be counting on a huge return to form from the Blackhawks star once he reenters the lineup.

Which, to be fair, is reasonable. Bedard is clearly the best player on his team — something none of the other top rookies can claim — and there is also the matter of Bedard being by far the most talked-about of the bunch. Season awards are, after all, driven by narrative much of the time.

But six to eight weeks is a long stretch — not just for other players to catch and pass Bedard in counting stats, but also when determining who had the “best season.” That timeframe means Bedard will miss a minimum of 15 games this year and possibly 20-plus.

Now, if this were past seasons of the NBA, playing 60-ish games at a high level would probably be enough. As is in the NHL, it may be a tough sell. Here are the game counts for the other four leading rookies:

• Hughes: Played all 40 Devils games
• Faber: Played all 42 Wild games
• Fantilli: Played all 43 Blue Jackets games
• Rossi: Played all 42 Wild games

That’s right, none of the other rookies have missed a single game. And given the playing time Hughes and Faber are getting as members of top-2 defensemen pairings, that time on ice is going to matter a great deal.

How to Bet This Year’s Calder Trophy Race

One thing helping Bedard a bit is the state of these other rookies’ teams. Minnesota and Columbus, while not quite as bad as Chicago, are both at or near the bottom of their respective divisions. The Wild lead only the Blackhawks in the Central and have a negative-23 goal differential, and the Blue Jackets are DFL in the Metropolitan.

Of course, that could also make Hughes look better since the Devils are playoff contenders. They are only 8 points up on Minnesota, however, and would be out of the playoffs if the season ended today, so it’s not a huge boon to Hughes’ case. Still, New Jersey is the closest to contending at the midway point of the year.

Another issue that must be addressed is Bedard’s playing style when he returns. Early on his lack of size and finesse style of play led to him taking some rough-looking hits. He had largely managed to avoid these after the first couple of weeks of the season, but now that he has suffered a significant injury, will he play more passively? Will other teams look to lay the wood on him even more and make him give up the puck?

Given how poor Chicago has been at finishing, Bedard’s passing ability has been somewhat mitigated in Year 1. His goal scoring and creativity are what shine, but if opponents force the puck off his stick, the Blackhawks have not shown themselves to be overly supportive of their young superstar (in an on-ice sense, not a morale sense).

That said, Connor McDavid (aka the last Connor Bedard) suffered bad injuries in his rookie season and came back to be, well, Connor McDavid. Bedard will get there, but it is reasonable to wonder if he will do that this year. (McDavid also has three inches and about 10 pounds on Bedard, for the record.)

Essentially, what this will come down to is: Can Bedard put up such ridiculous numbers upon return AND keep the conversation centered around him enough to stave off Hughes’ and Faber’s massive playing time advantage? It’s certainly in play.

But it’s not -185 in play.

With the value on the side of taking the field, the smart play right now (before Bedard’s odds drop) is attacking one of the two rookie defensemen for Calder. I am leaning Hughes since his production is a little better, his name holds more significance and the Devils appear to be more of a threat.

If Not Bedard, the Best 2023-24 Calder Trophy Pick: Luke Hughes, Devils Defenseman (+475 at BetMGM)