With the Sony Open in the books, bettors can now look forward to this week’s 2023 American Express for PGA betting picks. This tournament will once again take place in the Coachella Valley in California across three different courses. Two entries stand out as golf betting fades this weekend, including Sam Burns.
Golfers will rotate between La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and the Stadium Course prior to the 54-hole cut. Sunday’s championship round will then take place at the Stadium Course once again.
Previous leaderboards reveal the two metrics with the most predictive success for this tournament are scrambling and strokes gained on approach. Let’s take a look at two guys who are overpriced for the 2023 American Express.
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2023 Sony Open Golf Fades
Cameron Young’s Scrambling May Cost Him
The 2022 PGA TOUR Rookie of the Year, Cameron Young has a bright future in this sport. However, this week is a good spot to fade the excellent 25-year-old, primarily because of his below-average ability to scramble.
Young ranks just 195th in scrambling at a troubling 50.9% this season. The issue with his inability to scramble consistently, especially at this week’s courses, is that his approach game is arguably the second-weakest part of his game.
If Young struggles on the approach this week and forces a lot of difficult up-and-downs, he may not even make the cut. He has averaged just 0.355 strokes gained from the approach over the past two seasons.
Last season, he finished 40th in his first-ever appearance at this tournament. However, his 77 in the final round at the Stadium Course proves that he may struggle at this event.
Assuming Young doesn’t start this tournament off with a 64 in back-to-back years, it could be a shortened week for the young star.
Bettors can exploit Young’s status as a golf betting fade in a handful of ways. One is to take him to miss the cut at +275 on DraftKings Sportsbook. New bettors at DraftKings can even secure $200 in free bets with just a $5 wager!
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Sam Burns’ Scrambling is Likely Unsustainable
At 31-1, Sam Burns currently owns the 10th-best outright odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. This season, Burns is three-for-four on made cuts. He even recorded a top-10 finish at the CJ Cup in South Carolina.
However, Burns’ approach game has been incredibly shaky thus far. He ranks 181st this season in strokes gained from approach. Burns’ scrambling has bailed him out time and again this year — he owns an impressive 64.9% scrambling percentage.
Unfortunately for Burns, that number isn’t sustainable. A look at a larger sample size of Burns’ career leads to that conclusion. He finished each of the last five seasons with a scrambling percentage below 60%.
At a tournament that rewards the best scramblers and approach players, regression in the scrambling department would likely sink any chance of success for Burns this week. While he boasts two top-20 finishes at this tournament, he also missed the cut last year, something that could happen once again this season. Burns sits at +180 to miss the cut on FanDuel.
Bettors can take advantage of Burns and Young as golf fades by backing their opponents in head-to-head matchups.
