A sense of normalcy returns to the PGA Tour with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, as many of the familiar names atop the World Rankings will be in action. With it comes Jon Rahm playing better golf than anyone on planet Earth, Scottie Scheffler looking to repeat as champion and other winners this year on tour like Max Homa. Even Chris Kirk comes in playing great golf, capped off by last week’s victory at the Honda Classic. Normally a guy in the top tier will get bumped down on the board, allowing for great value on even longer shots. Let’s look at a couple of Arnold Palmer longshot golf bets who can stand the test of Bay Hill.
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Arnold Palmer Invitational Longshot Golf Bets
Laddering a longshot is key in any event, taking advantage of solid plus-money odds for a top-40 and top-20. Last week’s top-40 cashed by focusing on iron play and scrambling at the Honda. Not much changes this week at Bay Hill, except for the weather now being an issue compared to last week. Weather has been volatile here, but the principles of beating this Florida course remain similar to last week, except length off the tee becomes much more valuable. Targeting someone with long odds that has a recent stretch of success at Bay Hill — not to mention this season — is the best place to begin.
Luke List is one of a handful in this current field that have multiple top-10 finishes over the past five seasons. He had a top-29 and top-25 in two of his last three events. Granted, the past two attempts have yielded a missed cut and top-63 finish, but List has had somewhat recent success at Bay Hill. The problem is he is horrific with the putter. It is rather difficult to comprehend how someone can lose as many strokes on the green as List yet finish below top-30 in some competitive events. His showing with the irons at the Genesis was outstanding, and he’s gaining strokes off the tee. Scrambling is not a concern here — only the flat stick. List becomes a fantastic ladder candidate at top-40/top-20/top-10, but it is worth sprinkling a little on his 175-1 odds from PointsBet.
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational Longshot Golf Bet: Luke List (+17500, PointsBet)
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Honorable Mention: Keith Mitchell (+6000, FanDuel)
Please go watch Putting for Dough then come back to this paragraph. It explains why Keith Mitchell has no choice but to make the cut, top-40, top-20, top-10, and win the whole thing.
Mitchell has been on a tear over his last four events, with the WM Phoenix Open standing out as his lone struggle (he still finished top 42 and gained strokes everywhere but on and around the green). But that’s just it; if Mitchell gains strokes on and around the putting surface, he is a strong candidate to win in these conditions. He has had a variety of finishes over the past four tournaments at Bay Hill, including a top-5 and top-6, but he’s playing better golf heading into this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. Mitchell is another strong ladder candidate on top of an outright.
