The PGA Tour is down to the final 50 golfers for this year’s FedEx Cup Playoffs and the race to the Tour Championship. The playoffs roll on with the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields, and with it come 50 of the world’s best looking to survive another week and make the final 30. This is a course the tour does not see often, and a shorter field makes the odds that much worse. However, our bets only have to beat 49 golfers, which gives all of them a more realistic shot of getting in the mix. Let’s dive into 2023 BMW Championship odds and see who is worth a look in the second leg of this playoff run.
2023 BMW Championship Odds, Bets & Expert Predictions
2023 BMW Championship Outright Bet: Rory McIlroy (7-1 DraftKings)
It is pretty rare that that a sub-10-1 play in the outright market makes this space, as — pointing out the obvious — winning a golf tournament is hard. This week, however, is a little different given the smaller field, and McIlroy finds himself near or close to his usual odds with his form and game firing on all cylinders. Ideally he would have more wins (especially at majors), but eight straight top-10s and a third last week answered a lot of questions.
Given what McIlroy has done, it is no surprise to see his driving leading the way. Domination off the tee sets up the rest of his game, and the putter has cooperated, which is the key to success. Olympia Fields has shown real pushback against the top players in the world, and driving distance will be useful on this difficult par-70 layout. If McIlroy keeps playing the way he is, once again he will be a live ticket entering Sunday. This would also be the guy to look to for the +300 boost that DraftKings is offering on an outright winner this week.
2023 BMW Championship Outright Bet: Collin Morikawa (22-1 FanDuel)
Morikawa was a solid outright play heading into last week, and for a while it seemed like it could pay off. However, as the week went on, Morikawa was never able to solidify momentum, ultimately fading into 13th. Taking a macro view, it was another fine showing while gaining strokes in every category, which is partly why it is worth holding on here. The more pessimistic view is Morikawa wasted another decent putting performance, which for him does not come around often. It is also another week without a win, which is starting to stretch into a significant drought for a guy this good.
It is tough to grasp course fit at a venue not seen very often, but Morikawa has the right skillset. He can gain off the tee consistently and at times is on the short list for best iron players in the world. Those who watched him last week at the FedEx St. Jude know he played better than the result indicated. This number still being north of 20-1 is good enough, and he is closer to breaking the winning drought than the odds indicate.
2023 BMW Championship Outright Bet: Corey Conners (50-1, FanDuel)
Before making a case for Corey Conners, it is worth pointing out that Sungjae Im checks a lot of the same boxes in the same range. Realistically, the majority of FedEx events are won by the top of the board, but Conners deserves a look at 50-1. He normally is a pure ball striker, but lately it has been bizarro-world Conners, with quality putting and a lack of precision with the irons.
Last week Conners was having a forgettable tournament until an absolutely nuclear final nine holes launched him into a sixth-place finish. Now, that does not mean he will carry that into Olympia Fields, but his game is close, and in outright markets it makes sense to target guys whose stats are a little all over the place. Conners is basically automatic off the tee in terms of strokes gained, so he just needs to get his normal ball striking synced with his newfound putting. That is easier said than done, but at a course with a lot of unknowns, it is worth paying to find out, especially at 50-1.
