Tiger Woods is back, and so is the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in California. Of course, Woods returning to action will just be a small appetizer to a field that boasts nearly 40 of the top 50 players in the world. Riviera Country Club is one of the most difficult courses to score below par across the tour, seeing most cut lines well above even par over the last decade. The former open turned invitational through Woods also offers a gigantic purse — with only one winner below +3000 over the last 10 times this tournament was played. In other words, guys sitting 33-1 to 60-1 have a legit chance to crack this top-heavy field and win. That creates realistic chances for more mid-range guys, allowing better value on longer plays.
Legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
The Genesis Invitational Longshot Golf Bets
Riviera is a monster of a course that requires a lot of golf shots. Long hitters who grip and spray are going to have trouble here, as are most golfers who struggle recovering from bad drives and approach shots. Winners here have successfully shaped drives, recovered from missed fairways and scrambled better than anyone. Saving par is vital, as scoring opportunities are going to be limited. Categories like strokes gained off the tee and good drives gained are important, as are scrambling from 30 or greater and putting on poa grass. Course history also plays a role, as it is not just the extremely difficult fairways and bunker-riddled greens golfers have to navigate; there’s also the gigantic crowd that makes last week’s event look miniscule.
Brian Harman sits comfortably outside the majority of the betting field at 125-1 to win. He is not the longest shot by any means but probably not the most popular ticket either. Harman has made the cut three straight years at the Genesis Invitational and in eight of nine events played this year. He had a strong swing season and missed his first cut two weeks ago at the American Express. The things Harman does well, in some cases exceptionally well, are a perfect fit for this course and tournament. The problem is he’s Brian Harman, not Tony Finau.
Harman is one of the top scramblers and short putters this year on tour. His ability to save par and limit mistakes around the green has been crucial to early success. Harman is also top 30 in some key driving stats like strokes gained off the tee and total driving. He simply is not doing this consistently to be one of the top golfers on tour, nor does he have the resume as most of the golfers with shorter odds ahead of him. Harman is a sneaky play here with tons of value at 125-1, especially with his top-15 greens in regulation across the field.
Best Genesis Invitational Longshot Golf Bet: Brian Harman (+12500, Caesars)
Legal gambling age is 21+ in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER
Honorable Mention: Patrick Rodgers
Ben Rasa has already hit a couple of outrights this year on Putting for Dough. Patrick Rodgers has been a popular name for the show and was another hit this week for Ben. Rodgers has been a target in spots where course history and/or familiarity are big but not the only metric. In this case, Rodgers missed the cut last year but previously reeled off five top-30s — two of those finishes in the top 15. There is always a low expectation of fairway accuracy off the tee for most of this field, so strokes gained around the green become more relevant. Rodgers is top 10 within the field around the green, deadly from long approach shots of 250 or greater and one of the best putters from 20 to 25 feet on tour. At 110-1, he’s worth a shot, but even more so in a top-40/top-20 ladder.
