Welcome to Mexico — or the launching pad last year for Jon Rahm’s assault on the rest of the PGA Tour. For the first time this year, the tour heads south of the border, with a weakened field led by just Rahm and Tony Finau. With the top two favorites significantly watered down and the majority of the other “favorites” being too volatile, this sets up for a great week to bet longshots. There are plenty of options in attacking the course at Vidanta. With only one year down at this venue, the sample size is incredibly small, but as expected, the more aggressive hitters both off the tee and with longer irons will thrive. Picking an upset requires some luck in this game, but most of it is homing in on one or two key attributes that can elevate a golfer with longer odds.
2023 Mexico Open Longshots
If the goal is to just focus on what worked last year, then getting distance off the tee and accuracy off long irons should result in success. Putting, scrambling, approach shots — all important in golf, but not as much of a stress as normal. The good news about one of the 180-1 longer shots is Kevin Tway’s ability to putt, which is the difference this weekend compared to anyone else with similar odds.
To be fair, the past six events have been a disaster of epic proportions. Tway missed the cut in five of those events, somehow holding on at Corales for a 38th. Despite the horrific endings, Tway still gained strokes putting in half of them. He missed the cut last year at Vidanta while gaining strokes both off the tee and on approach, just losing way too much around the green. His distance both off the tee and from 200-plus yards makes for one of the better golfers in the field — again, focusing on the two key ingredients to beating Vidanta. Tway was mentioned on this week’s Putting for Dough with Ben Rasa as one of the best longshots to ladder. Ben mentioned the solid course comp of the Mexico Open and the Houston Open, where Tway played exceptionally well last year.
So what was the biggest difference in the second-place finish at the Houston Open versus struggling elsewhere, even at Vidanta last year? Tway was gaining strokes on the green. That’s the difference maker here too. Betting on Tway to win at 180-1, and any top-40 and top-20 ladder, requires him to simply do one thing, and one thing only: Not implode on the green. He will have to make putts but can set himself up for scoring chances by remaining deadly from over 200 yards out and off the tee especially.
Best 2023 Mexico Open Longshot — Kevin Tway (180-1, DraftKings)
2023 Mexico Open Honorable Mention
Matt Wallace makes too much sense to ignore this week. Be it the weakened field or just how well his game should fit Vidanta, Wallace is an absolute smash to ladder and sprinkle for an outright. His number is moving, so it’s vital to shop for the best odds. Wallace is sitting around a 65-1 to 75-1 longshot in a weak field for a rather obvious reason: His inability to put forward anything remotely close as consistent. Over his last six events, starting with a missed cut at THE PLAYERS, Wallace added two more missed cuts, a win at Corales, a seventh and a 28th. He is as all over the board as one can be, but the constant remains — he fits rather nicely at a course designed for aggressive length and dealing with windy conditions. Wallace was able to navigate losing strokes on the greens at the Valspar by gaining everywhere else, a similar formula that could easily work at Vidanta. Ladder both of these guys from top-40 down to top-10, with a nice sprinkle on the outrights.
2023 Mexico Open Longshot — Matt Wallace (70-1, DraftKings)
