The second major of the season tees off tomorrow with the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, N.Y., and there are a ton of ways to go for betting outrights, top-5’s and head-to-head matchups. Although outrights provide larger payouts, do not overlook the matchup and three-ball markets that provide additional edges. Check out some of the best outright bets from earlier this week — and here are some 2023 PGA Championship matchups worth exposure.
PGA Championship Matchup Bets: Matthew Fitzpatrick & More
Round 1 Three-Ball Matchup: Cameron Davis (-115) Over Taylor Montgomery & Matt Cahill (DraftKings)
Priority 1 with this play was figuring out who Matt Cahill is, and given he is a PGA Professional, it is a big ask to think he can outduel two quality players on the PGA Tour, even in just an 18-hole stretch.
That leaves Cameron Davis against Taylor Montgomery, and Montgomery is not the type of player to target at this Oak Hill layout. He has lost strokes off the tee in four straight events and relies solely on elite short game and putting to keep him in it. Davis is far from firing on all cylinders, but he has made three of his last four cuts and has not lost strokes off the tee since January. At -115, Davis should win this three-ball and hopefully set the tone for a profitable week.
Tournament Matchup: Tommy Fleetwood (-110) Over Sam Burns (DraftKings)
These are two quality players matched up, with Tommy Fleetwood and Sam Burns both having the talent to get in the mix in a major. Fleetwood is playing fantastic golf in 2023, with seven straight made cuts and a fifth last time out at the Wells Fargo. He is gaining strokes in all categories and already has shown the ability to play a tough difficult layout like Oak Hill.
For Burns, the first red flag is not being on Bermudagrass, which is where he normally explodes with the putter. It is not to say he is solely reliant on the putter, but it is clear he prefers Bermuda greens rather than the bentgrass he will see here. Coming off a missed cut last time out at the Wells Fargo, he has ball-striking numbers that are a little all over the place, particularly on approach. Given how strongly Fleetwood is playing, Burns will need a top-end performance. This is one of the best matchup plays all week at -110.
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Tournament Three-Ball Matchup: Matthew Fitzpatrick (+175) Over Collin Morikawa & Cameron Smith (DraftKings)
If looking at tournament three-balls, make sure to take advantage of the 33% Profit Boost that DraftKings is offering, as that will add some upside to any bet. These three-ball tournament matchups are very competitive, but at +175, Matthew Fitzpatrick is in a good spot against Collin Morikawa and Cameron Smith. Fitzpatrick already broke through in the Northeast with his first major and has the combination of distance and accuracy he needs off the tee. He was battling some injuries early in the season but seems healthy given he just won at the RBC Heritage in April.
In terms of his opponents, Morikawa can also dial it in off the tee consistently, but he has serious issues with his short game. Last time out, he lost another 4.8 strokes with the putter en route to a missed cut at the Wells Fargo. It is a consistent issue for a guy this good, and Morikawa could easily put himself out of it.
Then there is Smith from LIV Golf, who is a wizard with the short game but lacks the off-tee upside that Oak Hill requires. There is no doubt Smith can work around it, as he has done so many other times, but losing strokes off the tee here puts tremendous pressure on the rest of a golfer’s game. He finished 34th at The Masters, which did not show much, and it is unclear where Smith’s game is. With reasonable question markets on both, Matthew Fitzpatrick at +175 is a good play to outduel them both this week.
