With the Sentry Tournament of Champions in the books, bettors can now look forward to this week’s Sony Open in Hawaii for PGA betting picks. The Waialae Country Club will host this tournament once again, which it has done since its inception in 1965. Two entries stand out as golf betting fades this weekend, including star Jordan Spieth.
Waialae is a par-70, 7,044-yard track that benefits those who can get off the greens quickly. Previous leaderboards reveal the metric with the most predictive success for this course is strokes gained from putting. Let’s take a look at two guys who are overpriced for the 2023 Sony Open in Hawaii.
2023 Sony Open Golf Fades
Jordan Spieth’s Putter May Cost Him Again
Throughout Jordan Spieth’s historic career, his putter has been his number-one nemesis. At a course where putting separates the top of the leaderboard from the rest of the pack, Spieth’s odds to win are too short at 16-1.
Spieth has the third-best odds of winning the 2023 Sony Open. Name recognition bias has likely inflated his line as he is one of the most recognizable in the field. However, his putter will likely cause his downfall once again this week. Spieth currently ranks just 104th in strokes gained from putting. He has failed to crack even the top 100 in the metric in four of his last six seasons.
Spieth has looked good but not great early this year. He ranks 116th in the FedEx Cup standings after posting a T13 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and T52 finish at the C.J. Cup in South Carolina. His love-hate relationship with his putter has directly correlated with hit-or-miss finishes at the Sony Open.
Although Spieth finished 18th here in 2018 and third in 2017, he missed the cut in both 2014 and his most recent appearance (2019). With how his putter has looked so far this season, Spieth’s tournament is likelier to go more like the latter two appearances.
Bettors can exploit Spieth’s status as a PGA betting fade in a handful of ways. One is to take him to miss the cut at +300 on DraftKings. New bettors at DraftKings can secure $200 in free bets with just a $5 wager!
Russell Henley Running With the Mayakoba Hype
At 20-1, Russell Henley currently owns the sixth-best odds at DraftKings. Currently ranked 10th in the FedEx Cup standings, Henley’s early-season success is carried by his impressive victory at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, where he was on fire from the jump and carded a 63 in each of the first two rounds.
However, the rest of Henley’s season to date hasn’t been so impressive. He finished T45 at the C.J. Cup in South Carolina, T30 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions (38-man field) and has two missed cuts (Sanderson Farms Championship and Cadence Bank Houston Open).
Henley’s putter has accounted for those poor performances — and for other similarly poor showings throughout his career. Henley ranks a troubling 201st in strokes gained from putting this year. Henley has now failed to crack the top 100 in the metric in each of his last seasons.
Henley’s odds sit at 20-1 because he won this tournament in 2013 and finished second last season. However, with the way he has put this season, Henley could miss the cut (+250 at DraftKings) at the Waialae Country Club, something that has occurred in three of his last seven appearances at this course. Bettors can also fade Henley and Spieth by backing their opponents in head-to-head matchups.
