As the PGA Tour eagerly anticipates the following week at Augusta, there is one more stop in Texas at the Valero. It is a similar trend in the Lone Star State, where wind could be an issue, possibly the only issue outside of ball striking. The greens at San Antonio rarely present challenges seen at many of the other tour stops, allowing for lesser or streakier putters to stay alive and win. The field is notably short of top-ranked golfers, as Rickie Fowler (needing a win to secure a Masters bid) is the second odds-on favorite. This means a ton of longshot opportunities and multiple avenues to chase down a big ticket. As always, OddsShopper suggests laddering top-40/top-20s with any longshot.
Let’s look at two Valero Texas Open longshot golf bets.
2023 Valero Texas Open Longshot Golf Bets
The normal emphasis on putting takes a lot of longer odds out of the picture when it comes to typical longshot betting in golf. This is a rare week where there is simply more leeway with anyone not dominating on the greens. The Valero puts more weight on getting to the green and avoiding mistakes with irons and wedges, rather than getting off the tee or in the cup. Putting is still important — it is golf — but not as important as next week, for certain.
Alex Smalley hits TPC San Antonio following a missed cut last year, but his style and stats make him appealing this year at 75-1. He comes off two straight made cuts, and despite being atrocious at times on the greens, he has gained strokes on the approach in four straight events. Even his scrambling has been more consistent than not, and he has gained strokes off the tee in three straight events.
Shaping iron shots and sticking approach shots will be more important for Smalley than anything else. It will set up easier putts for a guy struggling to recognize what that club even looks like, but this is the week for that to matter less. One other recent element of success for Smalley has been a balance of strokes gained with distance and accuracy, something he hasn’t put together in its entirety but could smash a lot of competition if honed in this week. The normal approach with longer shots on tour is finding someone who can make up strokes on the green, especially against a weaker field. At the Valero, a big stick or flat stick are not the leading causes of victory, so it opens the door for a ball striker and scrambler — at least with strong odds at +7500.
Best 2023 Valero Texas Open Longshot Golf Bet: Alex Smalley (+7500, DraftKings)
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Honorable Mention: Charley Hoffman Top 20 (+400, DraftKings)
Not sure anyone is aware, but this course belongs to Charley Hoffman. He has put together an impressive stretch here, with multiple top-2’s and a victory. Unfortunately for Hoffman, he is struggling — and that is an understatement. In fact, it’s been outright painful to watch him play golf, as he failed to finish within five strokes of the top score in any of his last five rounds. He has missed four straight cuts from the Honda Classic through Corales. But Hoffman knows and loves this course. He has been slightly devalued already as an outright winner, but taking Hoffman top 20 is the best way to account for his knowledge and love of TPC San Antonio.
