Welcome to the Zurich Classic. The PGA Tour stops in New Orleans for a departure from the norm with a two-man event that features some notable names. The tournament features two days of best ball and two days of alternate shot formats, putting extra emphasis on how each golfer plays inside his respective team. Playing together in prior events certainly helps, but ultimately everyone is chasing last year’s winners — Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele. The top of the board features some of the best golfers in the world, so it is understandable to see less value betting at the top. Even the mid-range only provides one or two groups that may stand out with value, so let’s dive deep into this 81-team event and find true longshot value.
2023 Zurich Classic Longshots
Playing together in past editions of this event is a huge advantage for those with deeper odds. Adding the recent history of playing in this tournament should boost interest even further. Popular mid-range groupings like Aaron Rai/David Lipsky or the Matthew and Alex Fitzpatrick will garner plenty of looks, but the better value is laddering a longshot group like Charley Hoffman and Nick Watney. These two have history; they have played together over the past five seasons at the Zurich, netting a pair of top-11 finishes.
Setting up a partner in alternate shot is almost as vital as hitting one’s own shot — in some cases even more, depending on the match. The better ball format allows one of these golfers to take a little more risk on some holes, depending on which formats best to each golfer’s skill set. This is something Hoffman and Watney have been able to find with similar formats. Just throwing two good golfers together does not transfer into winning, or even moderate success. This is a departure from the norm on tour, as confidence in partners is one of the key vehicles to success.
Hoffman already showed some signs of life this year, including a top-22 at the Valero, where he gained strokes everywhere except putting. That has been a major trouble spot for Hoffman, as he missed four straight cuts before that and was just abysmal on the green. Throw in a top-14 from the Waste Management and it is clear that, if he can set up for good putts, Hoffman can be a player. Watney has played in 10 events since his top-11 at Bermuda — he has missed seven cuts. That is not great, hence the 180-1 longshot odds here, but Watney was gaining strokes on the green when Hoffman was failing. If these two can essentially cover up some trouble spots in alternate shots, and one of them gets a little hot with some risk taking in best ball, that is a recipe for another top-10 finish.
Best 2023 Zurich Classic Longshot — Charley Hoffman/Nick Watney (+18000, DraftKings)
