Welcome to the PGA Tour’s first Pro-Am of the season, a tournament that carries a couple of key differences. Beyond the possible annoyance of having a chatty celebrity partner along for the ride, the American Express will be played over three different courses and features a 54-hole cut. It’s because of those celebrities that the greens are slower, the course easier and the pace of play creeping past seven hours. Some of finding a long shot this week is about taking advantage of easy courses, some of it is finding value in someone familiar with the Pro-Am setting. A deeper field with fewer familiar names at the top (Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler lead the pack) means more value for lesser-known golfers.
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2023 The American Express Long Shot Golf Bets
The beauty of the American Express is not limited to the three courses around Southern California. It comes in the difficulty in predicting winners, with some coming out of the woodwork. That should open bettors to the possibility of course and style fits helping a golfer with longer odds, so long as they can put together a string of solid putting. That’s where Ben Griffin is — and his ability to strike the ball, accuracy from 175 yards and in, and streaky putting can tilt odds in his favor. Griffin is a super-long shot at 120-1 to win but makes for a great ladder play at both top 40 and top 20. He’s right along the top of the field in some comparative metrics that can help explain pathways to success like scoring on easy holes and courses.
Griffin is at the top of this field in birdies or better gained, showing his ability to capitalize on easier holes throughout tournaments. He also ranks strongly among the current field in strokes gained on approach and putting, two areas of attack across the three courses — especially under easier conditions. The bottom line in winning this event is surviving a shootout. Expect low scores deep into the leaderboard where the difference in movement is making putts. There is less emphasis on hitting the ball far off the tee, as most guys will make that up on scoring par 5’s and shorter par 4’s.
Griffin starts to fit this event when looking at his strengths, compounded by his ability to get hot with the putter. He hasn’t put this together yet on tour and sits truly on the outside as a longer shot. The nature of this tournament allows golfers like Griffin to hang around, just needing a couple of longer putts to fall to secure the win.
Best Long Shot Outright Winner: Ben Griffin (+12000, DraftKings)
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This week’s honorable mention comes under the same strategy as last week’s (Webb Simpson) in buying low. There may not be a better opportunity to find Rickie Fowler playing this well and with 80-1 long-shot odds. The risk always comes in recent success being short lived, but in Fowler’s case, his bar is set so low for “success” that he appears to be playing well. The buzz around Fowler centers around how much better his overall swing looks, something that, if consistent, could lead to a surge of made cuts and top-20s. He isn’t there yet, but Fowler is certainly worth a sprinkle in a weaker field based on his swing alone. Any run on the greens would be an added bonus. Bet him top 40 and top 20 this week, along with winning outright.
Long Shot Outright Winner Bet: Rickie Fowler (+8000 DraftKings)
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