It was a Monday finish last week on the PGA Tour at the Cognizant Classic, but fortunately for the players they aren’t traveling to far with the next stop still in Florida. We head from Palm Beach Gardens to Orlando as The Arnold Palmer Invitational is next up on the schedule. Here we continue our PGA outright pick series with our latest Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks, betting predictions and more.
We go from a relatively weak field event to an elevated one, bringing in all the big names looking to take control of Bay Hill and this challenging layout. Before we dive into who sticks out in the betting market, it is always good to get a feel for the course, format and skillset we want.
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PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +650 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1600 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2000 |
| Jordan Spieth | +2200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2200 |
| Sam Burns | +2500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2800 |
The first positive is Bay Hill is one of the more identifiable courses on tour with this being an annual early season stop. We get a nearly 7,500 yard Par 72 layout filled with water, bunkers, and plenty of long irons to test even the best in the world. Even with all the hazards and danger lurking this is a course you still can find attack on, especially if you keep it out of the thick stuff.
Four par 5’s are on the card as well so looking at some strokes gained Par 5 scoring isn’t the worst idea. Unless your irons are cooking expect some scrambling to be required — naturally this course tests every club in your bag. I’ll be emphasizing ball striking and the ability to really attack with the long irons as that is so crucial here at Bay Hill.
Since this is an elevated event we get this new format of 69 of the world’s best playing and competing for a ton of money. The cut line is Top 50 plus everyone within 10 shots of the lead so even an average 36 holes will get you to the weekend. On the betting front it’s always a balance of getting better numbers throughout the board, but running the risk of one of the big names running away with the event. With that in mind here are a few guys who belong on the card this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Tommy Fleetwood
As we talked about, an elevated event brings the best of the best and with that comes a field that is full of PGA tour winners. It’s typical our first click in the betting market is Tommy Fleetwood, a guy searching for that elusive PGA tour win. There is no doubt in my mind Fleetwood has the skills and talent to beat any field, but with each passing event the question looms about if or when that win will finally happen.
Digging into the numbers it’s mostly a positive picture for Fleetwood who has plenty of experience at Bay Hill, including a 3rd back in 2019. Recently we saw him finish 10th at the Genesis in a format that mirrors this in terms of the elevated event. Long irons, ability to go low in a tough conditions, and experience in strong fields are all attributes Fleetwood possesses that have major relevancy here. At 28-1 on FanDuel, Fleetwood is a guy I will buy on and like most I still believe it’s eventually going to happen in terms of him securing that PGA tour win.
PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Pick: Tommy Fleetwood 28-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #2: Corey Conners
Conners has taken some steam already this week and it’s not hard to see why when we take a closer look. Let’s start with the number; which we can find 60-1 on FanDuel and that’s the price I want to target here. So far in 2024 the consistency has been there, finding the weekend in every start, but now we need to tap into the upside to get into the mix on Sunday.
It’s an easy evaluation when looking at the Canadian as he is consistently gaining strokes off the tee and giving them back on the greens. The irons are also a key asset for his game, but until he starts converting more of these looks we will continue to see him land in that Top 20-30 range instead of truly competing.
Turning the page to Bay Hill and we find a setup primed for Conner’s game, as he can lean on the ball striking to help keep him afloat. Like most of this field he has plenty of experience at Arnold Palmer including a 3rd in 2021.
PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Pick: Corey Conners 60-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Christian Bezuidenhout
Going for the Guiness Book of World Records here with most consecutive weeks betting on Christian Bezuidenhout on the PGA Tour. All jokes aside, if they continue to price him around 100-1 I will confidently deploy him on the card with the hope and belief the win will come and the payoff will make it all worth it. It’s not just blind hope that the South African can win on tour, the numbers and form absolutely prove it.
Last week at Honda was the full Bez experience with him flirting with a 2nd round lead early on Friday before blowing up and missing the cut. In Florida the variance is so high with trouble lurking everywhere you will get some of this roller coaster rounds, and I don’t weigh them too heavily.
What I do care about is that Bez has finishing Top 20 or better in 3 of his 4 API starts and comes in gaining consistently with the irons. However, the bad part of his game right now is off the tee, and he has to find ways to not put himself in trouble with the driver. Still, we’ve seen the irons and putting combo be formula for success year over year and that is the exact profile of his game right now. The runner up finish at Amex hurt, but it also proved that this is a guy capable of being there on Sunday and ill round out my card with him once again this week.
PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Pick: Christian Bezuidenhout 100-1 FanDuel
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