We return from a week off watching Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry capture a wacky title in New Orleans. Typical stroke play returns this weekend at TPC Craig Ranch in Texas. Don’t expect a top heavy field with a Major coming up, not to mention an elevated event to further draw out the bigger names. There is plenty of room to blast off from the tee box, the fairways aren’t dangerous, and accuracy isn’t important until second shots. We’ve seen longer hitters get to -20 or better to win this three straight years.
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DraftKings Pick6 Round 1 Predictions and CJ Cup Byron Nelson Picks
Sungjae Im M/L 68.5 Strokes
It’s been disappointing at times watching Sungjae Im struggle as he’s missed cuts in three of his last six events. He’s also coming off a T12 at RBC and a win in Korea, showing how dangerous he can be if his putter cooperates. Im has been up and down, no way around that, but comes in with a strong fit at Craig Ranch. We are essentially a good putting day away from slamming this ticket, knowing Im can take advantage of the longer par 3s and par 4s.
Length is rewarded, distance is secondary. Im needs to set up good looks on the green and knock down birdie putts. Being able to gain off the tee while relying on precise long to mid irons is the path to success. He gained strokes everywhere at the RBC which required shotmaking and accuracy, similar to second shots this weekend. Far less penalty for missing off the tee allows a guy like Im to recover quickly.
Staying LESS than 68.5 strokes is our first play backing a solid first round from Im.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Sungjae Im LESS than 68.5 First Round Strokes
Tom Hoge M/L Than 11.5 Pars
We can take advantage of a fantastic course fit and someone who can benefit from the grip and rip approach. Tom Hoge hasn’t missed a cut since January 14th at the Sony. He’s playing good to great golf at times, with 7 T20s over the same stretch.
There are 12 holes that are playing under par heading into this week, leaving six that are a tad harder to beat. We are betting that Hoge essentially navigates the longer Par 3s to a par score, rather than losing strokes.
Hoge hasn’t had the top success here, finishing T43 and T17 in each of the last two years, respectively. He missed the cut in the tournament’s inaugural year at Craig Ranch. With failure or struggle comes experience, and Hoge knows how to navigate this course to jump out early in the first round.
He’s a strong candidate for first round leader, and makes sense here that he’s predominantly scoring or settling for par. Two years ago en route to a T17, Hoge gained a full stroke around the green and a half stroke on approach shots. Keeping that level of accuracy up will set up plenty of scoring chances.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Tom Hoge MORE than 11.5 First Round Pars
Robert Macintyre M/L Than 4.5 Birdies Or Better
Our final play takes a stab at Robert Macintyre to finish with MORE than 4.5 first round birdies. Things don’t come easy for Macintyre, at least this year. His best finish during the calendar year was a T6 at the Mexico Open. He’s struggled to make cuts ever since. One thing that does stand out is his length and ability to generate power and accuracy off longer irons. This puts scoring in play on the longer Par 3s and any Par 4 north of 490 yards.
Macintyre is going after pins on day one, trying to overcome some rough starts that resulted in missing the weekend. He doesn’t have time to feel this one out, not on day one with a weaker field in contention. One more note about him is the lack of accuracy off the tee actually being a help here. Craig Ranch is forgiving both with the fairway rollouts and wide range of miss zones. Macintyre’s accuracy has been killing him as of recent play, which should make it easier to set up scoring chances.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Robert Macintyre MORE than 4.5 First Round Birdies
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction: Nicolai Hojgaard MORE Than 36.5 Holes Completed
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