The PGA Tour tees off a day earlier this week but returns to normal following the Farmers Insurance Open. Still in California, the tour sees a handful of familiar names up top — including Jon Rahm, who is hotter than the sun right now. The Farmers offers a couple of key distinctions from other events, most notably the two courses played over the four days, with golfers playing the North Course only once. Far easier than the South Course at Torrey Pines, the North should offer easier scoring opportunities, allowing for a buffer zone if any golfer struggles through the following three days. That strategy is best implemented in finding longer shots to bet at Torrey Pines.
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2023 Farmers Insurance Open Long Shot Golf Bets
Looking at total strokes gained in the current field for the South Course, there are a couple of names attached to long odds. Bill Haas is in that grouping and is all but shot at this point. A run on the South Course is certainly possible for Haas but not likely in this field, even with a decent score after one day. Instead, Gary Woodland should jump out at just 80-1 odds to win. He’s a perfect candidate to ladder at top 20 and top 10 (for a smaller unit size), as he’s played significantly better on the North Course, allowing for a strong start among some stronger names atop the odds board.
Speaking of which, someone at the top is going to falter. While it is unwise to bet against Rahm in that case, it’s also a difficult game to master each week no matter the course or conditions. The odds can drastically shift after one day despite it being the lone action at the North Course, so jumping ahead of anyone who can flip that into a positive is the best early strategy for picking longer shots at Torrey. Woodland isn’t playing great golf — something that factors into a +8000 long shot winner.
He did finish strong in two areas that can help his cause this week, especially switching to the more challenging South Course: Woodland was 28th in strokes gained on approach and 34th in strokes gained off the tee. Golfers do not need to drive for distance here and can overcome missing the fairway, especially at the North Course. Woodland has the capabilities to take advantage of softer conditions on the first day and hold off a determined field with sharp approach shots.
One noticeable area of difference between the two courses is the size of the greens. Not only are a lot of approach shots coming from 200-plus yards out, but golfers are also attacking much smaller greens on the South side. Woodland has the approach game to minimize the damage with accurate shots from 180 to 210 yards. Like most long shots, this will come down to consistent and streaky putting. Without the flat stick working, nobody has a shot at this thing — not even Rahm. A Woodland ladder is a solid play in the event he can find a groove with his putter. Everything else should fall into place.
Best Long Shot Outright Winner: Gary Woodland (+8000, DraftKings)
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