The NFL season is in the books which means Golf starts to become the main event in the sports world. We certainly aren’t at major season just yet, but marquee events continue including this week’s Genesis Invitational. The format is a little atypical with just a 70-man field and a cut line consisting of the top-50 golfers plus anyone with 10 shots of the lead. That should make most golfers safe for four rounds, but we still need to find those guys in contention. Before we get to our Genesis Invitational odds, picks and overall betting predictions, a small note:
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Genesis Invitational Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
Genesis Invitational Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +650 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1400 |
| Justin Thomas | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1600 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2000 |
| Max Homa | +2000 |
| Sam Burns | +2200 |
The first huge piece of news this week was that Tiger Woods is set to tee it up here at Riviera. Regardless of if you think he can even make the weekend, there is no bigger draw. The spotlight increases exponentially anytime Tiger tees it up. Joining him is the best of the best on tour and this field resembles a major outside missing all the LIV players. Seemingly every week we have a 100-1 long shot take down a tournament, but this week feels like that streak is about to end.
In terms of skillset, we want in potential bets it’s a course that forces you to bring your A game. A par 71 measuring just over 7,300 yards allows all different types of players to thrive from bombers to long iron specialists. Keeping it out of the thick stuff will help and having some familiarity with Poa greens is another benefit. At the end of the day, we want players who can attack a challenging layout, and, in a field like this, you need every club in your bag working. Here are a few quick outright targets that are going to be on my betting card this week.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Justin Thomas
Somehow it feels like I’ve bet Justin Thomas half a dozen times in 2024 already despite him only having 3 starts. There’s no doubt JT has been on the betting card several times this year including last week at Waste Management. The week before he didn’t get a chance to hunt down Wyndham Clark at Pebble Beach and had to settle for a sixthplace finish. Regardless, it’s clear that Thomas comes into the Genesis firing on all cylinders given his recent form.
Stats-wise we get everything we could ask for right now with Thomas gaining in all categories. The putter seems to be at a stable level and the irons are at their usual elite level. Course history wise JT has given it a run here with three top 10’s including a second-place finish in 2019. One thing that stood out was his ability to get hot on these greens with 3 years of gaining 4 or more strokes putting. That’s the kind of upside we want when hoping to grab an outright winner. You can’t go wrong at the top of the board, but at 16-1 that’s a number I’m willing to back with a guy playing great golf to start 2024.
PGA Genesis Invitational Pick: Justin Thomas +1600 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #2: Tony Finau
Given how loaded this field is we are going to find some big names towards the middle of the board this week. Seeing Finau at 33-1 isn’t crazy by any means, but this is still a guy who has all the tools to win at the highest level. This is an annual stop on his schedule, and he’s been close with a pair of runner-up finishes since 2018. It makes sense given how Finau’s game can translate around Riviera’s layout and the ball striking can really do the heavy lifting.
The big question here is can we get anything from Finau’s putter? So far in 2024, it’s been nothing but negative strokes gained putting, which caused a sixth-place finish at the Farmers to not be even better. Fortunately, the greens here have been kind to him over the years, and he clearly is familiar with these surfaces. I like many think Finau is in for a big 2024, and this could be the start of that run. At 33-1, he is a real target, and if that putter clicks he’ll be in the hunt.
PGA Genesis Invitational Pick: Tony Finau +3300 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Corey Conners
I know I mentioned the streak long shot winners will come to an end this week, but Conners hitting triple digits caught my eye. I really liked him last week at Waste Management, and he finished an uneventful 28th. One major positive is his off-the-tee game is in form, as he has gained strokes in that category in every event in 2024. That will serve him well at this layout and at least give him a shot to attack some of these pins.
Given Conners is playing good golf, you might be wondering why is he 100-1 in a 70-man field. Besides the field strength, it’s probably the course history, which should give you some hesitation. Conners has four appearances with 3 missed cuts and a 61st-place finish. Although that’s far from impressive, I still like this course for his game, and his ball striking should translate around this track.
Conners lost strokes putting in three of those appearances, and we know we need to find some positive regression there to have a chance. At 100-1, I’ll throw Conners on the card. I think he’ll put together a quality effort this week.
PGA Genesis Invitational Pick: Corey Conners 100-1 FanDuel
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