The Masters is right around the corner, before we make the stroll down Magnolia Lane there is plenty more golf to play. It’s why we are here to continue our PGA Outright series by showcasing our Houston Open odds, picks, betting predictions and so much more.
The PGA tour packs its bags and heads to Houston for the Texas Children’s Houston Open set to tee off this week. Not a huge marquee event this still brings in some of the big names, including the worlds best in Scottie Scheffler. The run he is on is creeping into historic territory — and from betting perspective his odds continue to plummet. This presents another interesting dynamic of getting favorable odds on a ton of players in this field, with the clear danger Scheffler once again wins.
If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our market-based betting model’s top picks for free — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for all of our best bets, including every expert pick!
PGA Houston Open Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions & More
PGA Houston Open Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +260 |
| Wyndham Clark | +1200 |
| Sahith Theegala | +1800 |
| Will Zalatoris | +2000 |
| Tony Finau | +2200 |
| Jason Day | +2500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +3000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +4000 |
| Alex Noren | +4000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +4500 |
Memorial Park Golf Course once again is our host for the four straight year. This means we have some insight into this Par 70 layout that measures out just under 7500 yards. The first thing standing out is this course is no pushover, so we immediately know being able to scramble and avoid damage is a recipe for success. The layouts force a lot of longer iron shots so being able to gain on the approach particularly from 200+ is key. We still are on Bermuda greens, but putting isn’t something I’m thinking about too much here. I’m mostly concerned about having a well rounded golfer who isn’t just suited for the traditional birdie fest on tour.
In terms of the field, we have Scottie Scheffler, Wyndham Clark, and Sahith Theegala leading us off on the betting boards. From there it’s a standard decline of PGA Tour regulars down to some guys either not in form or looking to make an impact as a relative newcomer. As we already talked about, the presence of Scheffler has a huge impact to the rest of the outright odds, but we still have to find a way past him. Let’s dive into the board, and who belongs on our Houston Open outright card this week.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Jason Day
Lets get it started with a solid price on Jason Day who is quietly hanging in the middle of the pack on tour. That’s not what we want for an outright, but at the same time the game seems closer than the 35th and 36th over the last two events. One thing to like is Day is back to his blueprint which always was world class around the green play and timely putting. That’s not to say we don’t need the irons to improve, but I feel confident his short game will pay dividends here.
Day has some reps around this layout as well including a 2022 appearance where he gained strokes in all four categories. Before the Florida swing he had two straight Top 10’s at Pebble Beach and Genesis and I think overall the 2024 form has been good enough to compete. I’m not going to mention Scheffler for the fifth time here, but if we survive the top of the board it’s wide open and 25-1 is a reasonable click for a player of Day’s talent and experience.
PGA Houston Open Pick: Jason Day 25-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #2: Alex Noren
Taking a temporary Christian Bezuidenhout break since he isn’t in the field, so let’s go to another player we’ve been so close with over the years. Like Bez, Alex Noren is a Euro who knows how to win, but the elusive PGA tour breakthrough is yet to come. Obviously it may never happen, but to me if it does this is exactly the type of event, field, and course we could get it at.
Let’s start with the form for Noren, which is fantastic, as he is coming in off a Top 10 at The Classic and a 19th at The Players. Not to jinx him, but he is a walking made cut stretching back into 2023 and he gained strokes in every category in both of the last two events. The consistency is there, and he does have a Top 5 at this very layout back in 2022. His game is trending upward at the right time, and this was my first click on the betting card this week.
PGA Houston Open Pick: Alex Noren 40-1 FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Joel Dahmen
We just saw a guy in a cool hat win last week so why not go with Joel Dahmen who also rocks the bucket hat on tour? Although I wish it was as easy as breaking down the outfits we need to dig a little deeper, but when we do there are some things to like with Dahmen. First, he is starting to find it having made 4 of 5 cuts including a 11th at The Players. Another guy a with Top 5 at Memorial Park back in 2021; which is never bad to see.
Looking at the strokes gained data it’s pretty clear what the issue is with Dahmen’s game. The ball striking is at a level where he should be in the hunt every week, but an ice cold putter has really set him back. Last time out at Valspar he gained over 8 strokes on the approach and gave it basically all back between around the green and putting. That needs to correct, but even a slight improvement could be enough for him to get in the mix. At 90-1 this was an aggressive click but compared to the rest of the 2024 winners this would barely register as a crazy off the wall winner.
PGA Houston Open Pick: Joel Dahmen 90-1 FanDuel
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more PGA predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down every tournament, so make sure to check out the rest of our PGA articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
