The PGA Tour packs its bag and heads south of the border this week with the Mexico Open set to begin. We’ve had a string of some big-name events and with it came the elites on tour — especially at last week’s elevated event in the Genesis Invitational. This field isn’t quite up to that standard, but from a betting perspective, the board couldn’t be more wide open. Given 2024 is already the year of the triple-digit outright winners it’s easy to make a case for a ton of guys this week. Nonetheless, while showing the latest Mexico Open odds and more, let’s begin delving into our Mexico Open picks, predictions and other data points!
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PGA Mexico Open Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA Mexico Open Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tony Finau | +750 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +1600 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +2200 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2200 |
| Thomas Detry | +2500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +2500 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +2800 |
| Keith Mitchell | +2800 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +3000 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | +3500 |
Before we dive into a few names on the betting card, it is important to know what type of course we are trying to break down at this week’s layout. Players will be tested with the same par 71, nearly 7,500-yard Vidanta Vallarta course we’ve seen the last few years. From what we can tell, it’s a week for the bombers, with generous fairways and plenty of incentive to be aggressive off the tee.
Previous winners include this week’s tourney favorite, Tony Finau, and Jon Rahm. Both are world-class players, so I wouldn’t draw a ton into this, but it still helps us craft the card this week.
In terms of skillset, I’ll be looking for those powerful off-the-tee players that we already discussed, and being able to go low doesn’t hurt either. We already saw Finau win here at -24 and it could take another score of that magnitude to cash an outright this week. Here are a few names I’ll be putting on the betting card for this week’s Mexico Open.
Mexico Open Pick #1: Taylor Pendrith
If you told me you wanted to click Tony Finau and secure the biggest win equity in the field I totally get it, but I’m going to try and find a way around it. After we get past Finau, the board immediately opens up and we are almost instantly in the 20-1+ range. A guy like Taylor Pendrith you could argue is on the next tier of players here and certainly has the talent to contend.
It’s a pretty easy breakdown of why I want to target Pendrith when you think about what type of player this course might cater to. The Canadian has the off-the-tee game we want, just top 10’d the Farmers against a much stronger field and seems to thrive in birdie-fest-type events.
His best finish on tour was a runner-up at Rocket Mortgage, some of which I think profiles similarly to this Mexico Open layout. 25-1 feels a little uncomfortable, but after looking at the field you realize the number still has some value. Pendrith is going to be a PGA tour winner, and this is the type of event at which he breaks through.
PGA Mexico Open Pick: Taylor Pendrith +2500 FanDuel
Mexico Open Pick #2: Erik Van Rooyen
Normally I bet Van Rooyen at like 150-1 to round out my card. So seeing him at 35-1 caused me some hesitation. However, it’s hard to argue that he should be any higher when you consider once again the weak field, and how his game currently sits. There is no doubt the South African found form again and with that brings some real win equity every time he tees it up.
The last time we saw EVR, it was during the Waste Management before he missed the cut. That broke a stretch of eight straight events in which he found the weekend, including a win during swing season. That win happened to be in Mexico at the WWT Championship which certainly has some similarities to what the players will see here.
If he continues to like these surfaces and can regain that form it could be another W added to the resume against a wide-open field this week.
PGA Mexico Open Pick: Erik Van Rooyen 35-1 FanDuel
Mexico Open Pick #3: Doug Ghim
You would think in an event like this it would be the perfect time to start firing off on random 150-1 shots, especially with how many long shots have won already on tour. I’m not saying to rule them out here, but I find myself way more interested in heavily targeting that 25 to 75-1 range this week. Another player who finds himself in there at 50-1 is Doug Ghim, and with him brings a ton of boom-or-bust potential.
Ghim is a player I’ve backed numerous times given his talent, but so far, he hasn’t been able to take down a tournament. Now, winning on Tour is never easy, but this guy has the skills and like most players is a putting week away from it all clicking. Lately, we are seeing signs, with his last two events producing a 13th at Farmers and a 12th at WMPO. Even better than the results is the strokes gained data, which has Ghim gaining in all four categories both weeks.
That type of consistency shows the game is in perfect shape heading into Mexico. Given his ability to score, I think 50-1 is a more than reasonable price to take a shot that Ghim finally puts it all together and grabs a win.
PGA Mexico Open Pick: Doug Ghim 50-1 FanDuel
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
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